By Gary Sandiford,Olive Group's Dubai based assessments manager.Olive Group is a leading provider of security and technology solutions and has operated continuously in Iraq since 2003.
Overview
Olive Groups Iraq statistics are drawn from multiple sources,including media reporting and direct liaison with in country assets.Included within the statistics are a minority sub-set of serious incidents which may not be purely attributable to insurgent/terrorist groups,such as murder,kidnappings and organised crime activities.
The total number of reported incidents in Iraq for the period 10-16 December 2012 was 147.This is above the 2012 weekly average of 118 and is an increase on last week's total of 134.The high number of national incident levels can be attributed to the significant increase in the North Central Region.With the exception of a minor increase in activity levels in the South Central Region,all other regions recorded lower figures than for the last reporting period.There was a much more consolidated insurgent effort to undermine security along the Tigris and Diyala River Valleys.
Northern Iraq(North and North Central Regions–including the KRG)
The Northern Region reported 27 incidents during the period,a decrease on last week's figure of 33,and below the 2012 weekly average of 25.Mosul continues to be the main focus for insurgent activity within the North Region,although incidents from Mosul's outlying districts and areas near the Syrian border were also recorded.Incident types were typical for the city of Mosul,with attacks mainly being small arms fire(several using silenced pistols)against static Iraqi Security Forces(ISF)locations.For the second week in a row,there was a low level of improvised explosive device(IED)activity within the city,with just three reported incidents.Despite a reduction in IED activity,a number of IEDs occurred on routes in Mosul's outlying areas.One IED detonation against an Iraqi Army patrol in Badush injured two soldiers and a civilian.Iraq's border districts with Syria continue to experience friction between insurgents/smugglers and ISF.These border regions have been very active over the past six months due to the deterioration of security on the Syrian side of the border.
The North Central Region reported 59 incidents during the period,an increase on last week's figure of 33 and above the 2012 weekly average of 36.The apparent increase in ISF operations along the Diyala River Valley(DRV)did nothing to reduce insurgent activity levels.IEDs were reported in most of the population centres between Baquba and Khaneqin,however,the largest concentration of incidents in Diyala Province was in Baquba and its environs,with an even number of IED attacks and SAF happening within the city.The most serious incidents in the DRV occurred in Baquba's environs;a vehicle-bomb(VBIED)just north of Baquba on 14 December targeting a police patrol,and a suicide bomber that prematurely detonated in Arabi village,south of Baquba.A VBIED attack in Samarra on 12 December detonated near a bus carrying Iranian pilgrims,killing at least two and injuring 19 others.This week's activity culminated into a coordinated attack on Kirkuk City on the evening of 16 December.The attack involved a VBIED in the north,up to five IEDs detonating near to the Imam Ali Husseiniya in Musalla,an IED detonation near the train station in the south,and mortars landing in the centre of the city.
Central Iraq(Baghdad and Anbar)
Baghdad Reported 29 incidents this week,below the 2012 weekly average of 31 and a decrease on last week's figure of 37.Incidents in the Baghdad Region occurred predominantly in the capital city;outlying areas–that have recently experienced a high number of incidents–were much more subdued this week.Within the capital,incidents were predominantly targeted against individuals with only one reported indiscriminate attack in Karkh on 13 December that killed a civilian and five others.The suicide attack outside the entrance to the Rusafa Tasfirat prison in eastern Baghdad on 12 December was slightly anomalous and was reported as a failed prison escape.Incident levels were also more subdued to the north of the capital than has recently been experienced.The most violent activity on the outskirts of Baghdad City happened in Hamid Shaban,Abu Ghraib district,with an attack against a police patrol and a suicide car-bomb at a military headquarters.
Anbar reported 12 incidents during the period,a decrease on last week's figure of 14 and above the weekly average for 2012.The key battleground in Anbar continues to be contested in Fallujah and its surrounding rural areas.This week there was a combination of targeted attacks against civilians and against ISF patrols and checkpoints;and two VBIEDs(one which was disarmed).A SAF attack on 12 December against a police patrol near Amiriya was the first attack in the area this month.In November,Amiriya was very much the focus of insurgent activity,including targeted attacks and VBIEDs.However,incidents stopped after a concerted ISF effort in mid-November.Reports of confrontations between smugglers and security forces have featured regularly since the deterioration of security on the Syrian side of the border(much like in the North Region).However this week there was just one reported clash with smugglers.
Southern Iraq(South Central and South East Regions)
The South Central Region reported 14 incidents during the period,an increase on last week's figure of ten,and still above the 2012 weekly average.ISF operations in the northern areas of Babil and Wasit provinces do not appear to have affected insurgent operations.Most incidents in the South Central Region were concentrated in the northern areas of Babil Province,with the majority attacks occurring in Iskandariya.Apart from an IED inside a residence on 10 December,three IEDs were emplaced to be indiscriminate(on 11 December there was an IED detonation outside a billiard hall,and an IED find near a vegetable market,and on 16 December a VBIED was disarmed).On 10 December there was an armed attack against an Awakening checkpoint in Iskandariya,and another in Mussayib against four Awakening members.
The South East Region reported six incidents this week,a decrease on last week's figure of seven and slightly less than the 2012 weekly average.As per the norm for the South East Region,all but one reported incident occurred in Basra Province.Incidents were predominantly SAF and related to disputes of a familial,tribal or criminal nature.The most notable incident occurred on 15 December,when an off duty border guard was shot in the head as he opened the front door of his house in Zubayr.There have been several other close quarter attack incidents reported throughout the year in the province;however shooting incidents have mostly been bursts of gunfire at residences or as a result of an argument.This attack appeared to have been conducted by a professional gunman,and was possibly linked to a criminal disagreement.Additionally,four'sound-bombs'were found and disarmed in the north of Basra City.
