Apple's iOS has had its "revolutionary" moment, and now faces only "evolution" as carrying legacy and expectations decreases the opportunity to innovate. So says Richard Kinder (pictured), technology VP of mobile software management firm Red Bend.
"What's fascinating for me is the industry enters these periods of stability," said Kinder, whose company has just released an over-the-air Android upgrade solution to attempt to reduce fragmentation on the platform, "where there's one or other dominant platform and the status quo is preserved, and you get these islands of stability.
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"What's interesting to me now is, iOS has had its revolutionary moment, I believe, and it's in an evolutionary phase now," said Kinder.
"The user experience paradigm that iOS brought to the mainstream - arguably there were full-touch smartphones before that, LG Prada and such - but it definitely popularised the capacitive, multitouch fullscreen user experience. I think that's a reasonable assertion to make. And it was a genuine revolution in terms of the way devices were used."
But as platforms mature, said Kinder, the gains companies can make from the technology "are incremental".
"Does my iPhone 4S really do anything different to my iPhone 3GS?" asked Kinder. "No. But it's separated by a couple of years, in terms of timing."
"As platforms mature, the space and opportunity to innovate decreases a little bit. You've just got more legacy you're carrying with you," Kinder continued.
When asked whether it is really possible to shut down and reinvent a platform while still functioning as a major contender, as BlackBerry has arguably tried to do with the new BlackBerry 10 platform - Kinder replied that doing such a thing "is like trying to change an engine while you're flying".
"You can ask 'Do you want to try it? You might be able to do it. But all of these platforms have a strong underpinning from a kernel perspective, and it comes down to the user experience more and more. That's where the majority of software effort goes to, and to have the enabling frameworks underneath in order to do so."
Kinder maintained, however, that there is "room for innovation at the edges" from the likes of Canonical's Ubuntu Touch, Jolla Mobile's Sailfish and Mozilla's Firefox, and that these dynamic new open source solutions, as well as finding a place to thrive, may possibly lead to new revolutions of their own.
"There's a lot of people in China who don't have a smartphone right now," said Kinder. "And there are extremely competent and hungry manufacturers in Shenzen. Give them an enabling OS technology, and you could see a new Nokia or Apple emerge."
