The Moscow Times reported that if Ukraine turns its plans to slash Russian gas imports into a reality, Gazprom will demand that Naftogaz pay billions of dollars for the 2013 import shortfall as per the take or pay provision outlined in the contract.
According to preliminary expert estimates, Gazprom's claims against Ukraine's national oil and gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy might reach USD 2.7 billion this year if Naftogaz only imports 27 billion cubic meters of gas instead of 33.28 billion cubic meters.
The shortfall might total 6.28 billion cubic meters of the allowed minimum amount stipulated in the existing contract, Mr Daniil Kurdelchuk president of the Ukrainian Law Collegium and Partner at Grant Thornton Ukraine Mr Oleksandr Malynovsky wrote in the weekly newspaper Zerkalo Nedeli Ukraina.
Potential penalties for Naftogaz for failing to take the contracted amount of gas in 2013 might cause the firm to shell out some USD 3.8 billion if it reduces imports to 34.5 billion cubic meter which Ukrainian Energy and Coal Industry Minister Mr Yuriy Boyko has indicated will happen.
Gazprom could slap Naftogaz with a major lawsuit if the Ukrainian company only imports 20 billion cubic meter of gas which Naftogaz's Deputy CEO Mr Vadim Chuprun has not ruled out. In such a case, Naftogaz would be threatened with a fine of about USD 5.7 billion. The amount of this possible penalty is calculated on a price of USD 430 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas.
Mr Malynovsky and Mr Kurdelchuk said that this is only if Naftogaz and Gazprom do not settle disagreements over reduced gas withdrawal by mutual agreement. Ukraine would be forced to cut Russian gas imports to 18 billion cubic meters next year due to price pressure.
Mr Viktor Yanukovych president of Ukraine said that "We have a single lever to influence the situation to reduce procurements of Russian gas even further. If Russia's pricing policy changes for the better for us, we could gradually restore gas procurements. Otherwise, we will go even further along the path towards reducing procurements and searching for more favorable alternative sources of gas supplies."