According to the related information, the results of preliminary verified GDP for the first three quarters in 2012 are as follows:
Annotations: Quarterly GDP Accounting Instructions
1. Overview on Quarterly GDP Accounting
1.1 Basic Concepts
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the final products at market prices produced by all resident units in a country (or a region) during a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of the national accounts, and also an important indicator to measure the economic conditions and the level of development of a country or region.
In the practice of national accounting, gross domestic product is calculated from three approaches, namely production approach, income approach and expenditure approach, which reflect gross domestic product and its composition from different angles. GDP by production approach refers to the method from the point of view of production of measuring resident units create new value for a new accounting period, i.e. production from various sectors of the national economy during the accounting period, the total value of the product, minus the value of intermediate inputs in the production process to obtain value-added. The accounting formula as follows: value-added = total output - intermediate inputs. The income approach refers to the accounting method of measuring final income which obtained from the production process by the factors of production to reflect the final outcome for stand at the point of view from the production process. Under this accounting method, the sum of the value-added obtained from four parts by workers compensation, net taxes on production, depreciation of fixed assets and operating surplus. The expenditure approach is to measure the final destination of the products and services of the accounting period from the end-use perspective, including final consumption expenditure, capital formation, total and net exports of goods and services in three parts. GDP by Expenditure Approach refers to the method of measuring the final results of production activities of a country (region) during a given period from the perspective of final uses. It includes final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation and net export of goods and services.
National Bureau of Statistics released quarterly GDP using the production method which based on the result of basic accounting.
1.2 Accounting Coverage
1.2.1 Production Coverag
Production range of GDP accounting includes the following three parts: firstly, the production of goods and services provided to or ready to provide to other units by the producers, secondly, subsistence production of goods for own final consumption or capital formation by the producers, thirdly, owner-occupied housing services of owner-occupied housing owners to provide for their own final consumption, and paid subsistence family service production. Production range does not include subsistence family services without remuneration, no units controlled natural activities (such as wild, non-cultivated forest, berries or wild berries natural growth, the natural growth of the number of fish in the public sea), and etc..
1.2.2 Geographical Scope
The GDP accounting range principally covered all economic activities of all resident units having center of economic interests within China's economic territory. The quarterly GDP data in this report is national data produced by the NBS, GDP data of Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Taiwan Province is not included.
1.3 Accounting Unit
GDP accounting mainly uses corporate units as the accounting units, in the process of accounting, the corporate units are divided into different industries according to their principal activities, and calculate the value-added of each industry separately, and then aggregate the value-added of every industries into GDP.
1.4 Accounting Frequency
The accounting frequency was quarterly. From the first quarter of 1992, China started to account the quarterly GDP. Currently, the quarterly accounting adopted cumulative accounting method, i.e. calculating 1 quarter, 1-2 quarters, 1-3 quarters and 1-4 quarters respectively in a year.
Starting from the first quarter of 2011, the NBS officially releases quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate.
1.5 Related Laws and Regulations
GDP accounting was strictly complying with the provisions of the “Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China”. At present, China's GDP was measured in accordance with the requirements of the “China’s System of National Accounts (2002)” (CSNA), the system adopted basic accounting principles, contents and methods by the "System of National Accounts" (SNA) of United Nations in 1993. Recently, NBS is studying the revision of the SNA in 2008 which was revised by the UN and other international organizations, and will gradually revise China's GDP accounting system.
1.6 Confidentiality
According to the Article 9, Chapter I of the “Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China”, statistics institutions and statisticians shall keep confidential the State secrets, business secrets and personal information that are learned in the process of statistical work.
The personnels related to national accounting will strictly keep the confidentiality of the statistical data of subject matter areas and administrative records data used in GDP accounting, so as to the GDP results of the current period before releasing.
1.7 User Needs
The main domestic users of quarterly GDP data are the government departments, research institutions, universities, trade associations, the media, and the public. In addition, the NBS regularly provides China’s quarterly GDP data to international organizations, such as the UN, the IMF, OECD, ADB, etc.
2. Accounting Methods of Quarterly GDP
2.1 Classifications
In accordance with the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T 4754-2002) and the actual situations in China, the industrial classification adopted in quarterly GDP accounting is a three level classification.
The first level of classification directly adopts the “Three Industries Classification Regulations” enacted in 2003 by the NBS, which divided into primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry, but excluding international organizations in the tertiary industry.
The second level of classification is basically the sections in the Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities, and is divided into agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, industry, construction, transportation, storage and postal services, wholesale and retail trade, food and catering industry, financial intermediation, real estate, and other services industries. Of which, industry includes three sectors, i.e., mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water production and supply. Other services include 9 sectors, i.e., information transmission, computer services and software industry, leasing and commercial services, scientific research, technical services and geological exploration industry, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, resident services and other services, education, health, social security and social welfare, culture, sports and recreation, public administration and social organizations.
The third level of classification is, based on the second level of classification, dividing parts of sections of the tertiary industry into divisions.
2.2 Sources of Data
During the quarterly GDP accounting, all available and applicable economic survey data are used for GDP accounting. Mainly including two parts:
The first part is national survey data, which refers to the various statistical data obtained from the statistical surveys conducted by the national statistical system, such as statistical survey data of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, industry, construction, wholesale and retail trade, hotel and catering services, real estate, etc., sampling survey data of services industry, data of population and labour, wages statistics, and data of price statistics, etc..
The second part is the administrative record data from administrative departments, mainly includes relevant data from the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, State Administration of Taxation, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, for example, financial institutions and foreign currency credit balance of payments situation of the People's Bank of China, and tax information by industry of the State Administration of Taxation.
2.3 Accounting Methods
2.3.1 Current Price Accounting Method
According to the sources, the accounting of quarterly value-added at current price mainly use methods as value-added ratio, related value indicators computing, using constant price to compute current price.
Ratio of value-added method
This method means, calculating the total output at current price first, then determining the ratio value-added at current price according to the annual report of last year and the situation of current production, and then multiplying them together to obtain value-added. The accounting formula is as follows:
Value-added at current price = total output at current price × ratio value-added at current price
(2) Estimating method using growth rates of related value indicators
This method means, computing the growth rate of value-added at current price by using the growth rates of related value indicators at current price, then multiplying the value-added at current price in the same period of last year and the computed growth rate of value-added at current price, and then obtaining value-added at current price. The accounting formula is as follows:
Value-added at current price = value-added at current price in the same period of last year × (1+ growth rate of value-added at current price)
Of which, the growth rate of value-added at current price is determined according to the growth rates of related value indicators in current period, and the quantitative relation between the growth rate of value-added at current price and the growth rates of related value indicators at current price in previous years.
(3) Method of using constant price to compute current price
This method means, first obtaining value-added at constant price in current period by using material quantity index extrapolation method, then computing value-added at current price according to relevant price indices. The accounting formula is as follows:
Value-added at constant price = value-added at constant price × price index
2.3.2 Accounting Methods of Value-Added at Constant Price
Value-added at constant price is the value that replaces value-added at current price with value at price of a fixed period (base period), thus excluding the impact of price changing factors, to make the values of different periods comparable. Value-added at constant price is calculated using fixed base period method, and currently the base period is replaced once every five years. The base period is 2010 at present.
The accounting of quarterly value-added at constant price mainly uses methods of price index deflation and relevant volume indices extrapolation.
(1) Method of price index deflation
This method means directly deflating value-added at current price by using relevant price index, and calculating value-added at constant price. The accounting formula as is follows:
value-added at constant price = value-added at current price ÷ price index
(2) Method of volume indices extrapolation.
This method means calculating the growth rate of value-added at constant price by using the growth rate of relevant volume indices, then multiplying value-added at constant price in the same period of last year and the calculated growth rate of value-added at constant price, to obtain current value-added at constant price. The accounting formula is as follows:
Value-added at constant price = value-added at constant price in the same period of last year × (1+ growth rate of value-added at constant price)
Of which, the growth rate of value-added at constant price is determined according to current growth rate of relevant volume indices, as well as the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of value-added at constant price in previous years and the growth rate of relevant volume indices.
2.4 Seasonal Adjustment
The quarter-on-quarter growth rate of GDP is the result of comparison of value-added in this quarter and value-added in last quarter. When calculating, it is necessary to exclude the impact of seasonal factors on time series. Seasonal adjustment of time series has been completed by using NBS version seasonal adjustment software (NBS-SA). On the basis of currently international common seasonal adjustment software, and considering the unique seasonal factors in China, NBS-SA has been developed. This software has added a new module to handle the unique seasonal factors in China, made effective exclusion of the unique seasonal factors, such as the mobile holiday factors of the Spring Festival, the Dragon Boat Festival, and the Mid-Autumn, as well as the changing factors that weekly number of working days decreased from 6 days to 5 days, and changing factors of holidays movements and shift leave.
3. Revision of Quarterly GDP Data
3.1 The Necessity for Revision
Preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP data have a strong demand for timeliness, generally it is released about 15 days postseason. At this time, the basic information needed in GDP accounting can not be acquired completely, so preliminary accounting of GDP data is estimated using montly statistical data of subject matter areas and related indicators. After that, as the available basic information continues to increase and to improve, more complete basic information will be used to revise GDP data, such as annual report of subject matter areas, financial data of different industries, sample survey data and final financial accounting data, therefore making it to reflect the actual situation of economic development more accurately.
3.2 Revision Procedures
In accordance with Regulations on “China’s Quarterly GDP Accounting and Data Release Procedures of NBS”, and “Regulations on the Reform of China’s GDP Accounting and Data Release System”, China’s quarterly GDP accounting has three steps, which are preliminary accounting, preliminary verification and final verification. Typically, after preliminary verification and final verification of the annual GDP, quarterly data is to be revised, which is called regular revision. When carrying out national economic census and having found new basic information that has a great impact on GDP data, or with calculation methods and classification criteria changing, the historical annual GDP data is to be revised, as well as the historical quarterly GDP data is to be revised accordingly. This called comprehensive revision.
3.3. Revision Methods
3.3.1 Revision of Cumulative Data
Currently, China’s revision methods of quarterly GDP data is proportional connection, which means adjusting quarterly data by using the margin of reference value for the year and the sum of four quarters of the year. The basic steps of proportional connection are: First, connect value-added at current price and constant price of different industries in the national economy respectively. GDP and the value-added of three industries are the sum of connected value-added of different industries. That is, connected quarterly value-added at current price of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries is the quarterly value-added at current price of the primary industry. Add up connected quarterly value-added at current price of industry and construction, getting the connected value-added at current price of the second industry. Add up connected value-added at current price of various sectors of the tertiary industry, getting the connected value-added at current price of the tertiary industry. Add up connected value-added at current price of three industries, getting the connected quarterly GDP at current price. Connecting methods of GDP at constant price and value-added at constant price of three industries are the same with that at current price.
3.3.2 Revision of Quarter-on-Quarter Data
As the object of seasonal adjustment is time series data, therefore, when any quarterly data in the time series changes, the results of seasonal adjustment will be affected. The increase of a latest quarterly data into the time series, the quarter-on-quarter data in previous quarters will be changed more or less. These are the results of auto-revision of the model. According to the principle of seasonal adjustment, under normal circumstances, the closer to the period of the latest data, the more influence to the data, and the farther away from the period of the latest data, the less influence to the data. For the convenience of users, at the same time of releasing current quarter-on-quarter data, the revised quarter-on-quarter data in previous quarters will also be released on the NBS website.
4. Quality Assessment on Quarterly GDP Data
4.1 Assessment on Basic Data
For the statistical data of subject matter areas and the administrative records data used in GDP accounting, the relevant departments will examine their quality to ensure that the data reasonably reflect the actual situation of economic development. After getting these basic data, The GDP accounting department will examine the completeness and accuracy of the data once again to ensure that these data are consistent with the GDP accounting concepts and requirements.
4.2 Assessment on Accounting Methods
In GDP accounting process, the GDP accounting department will revise China's quarterly GDP accounting method in accordance with the actual situation of China’s continually developing economy, and in accordance with the standards of national accounting which are constantly improving, so as to ensure the rationality of accounting methods. Currently, the revision on “China’s National Economic Accounting System (2002)” is being studied.
4.3 Assessment on Accounting Results
After getting the quarterly GDP accounting results, it is needed to examine the data of each component of GDP, as well as the coherence of GDP data and the statistical data of related subjetc matter areas, statistical data from different departments and macroeconomic data, to ensure the coherence and matching of GDP data and other key data. A system that takes the national economic accounts as the core framework, and assesses basic statistical data of different subject matter areas and basic statistical data of differenct departments, is being established.
4.4 Comparability of Data
“China’s System of National Accounts (2002)” adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation's “System of National Accounts” (SNA) in 1993, therefore the GDP data are internationally comparable.
After the national economic censuses have been carried out, or the calculation methods and classification criteria have been changed, historical quarterly GDP data have been revised. Therefore, time series data of quarterly GDP are comparable since the first quarter of 1992.
5. Quarterly GDP Data Release
5.1 Release Date
Generally, the preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP is completed about 15 days after the season. The preliminary verification of quarterly GDP is completed within 45 days after the release of the preliminary accounting data. The final verification of quarterly GDP is completed within 45 days after the release of the final verification of the annual GDP. For the release of key statistical indicators, NBS will announce the release date in the “Regular Press Release Calendar” which is published at the beginning of the year, and GDP data will be released on time according to the regular schedule.
5.2 Release Methods
Generally, the preliminary accounting data of quarterly GDP are released about 15 days after the season at the Quarterly Press Conference on Economic Situation, on the NBS website (www.stats.gov.cn), and in the “China Monthly Economic Indicators”. The preliminary verification and final verification data of quarterly GDP are released in the national statistical database (http://219.235.129.58) and the “China Monthly Economic Indicators”.
The time series data of quarterly GDP since the first quarter 1992 can be queried in the national statistical database (http://219.235.129.58). In addition, NBS thrice edited and published Historical Information of China’s Quarterly GDP Accounting. Of which, the recently published “Historical Information of China’s Quarterly GDP Accounting: 1992-2011” summarized the quarterly GDP data of 1992 to 2011.
