Agricultural Production Showed Good Momentum and Summer Grain Continued to Get Harvests

In the first half of 2012, faced with the complicated and volatile economic environment at home and abroad, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council committed to the general tone of progressing steadily, correctly handled the relationships among steady and comparatively rapid economic development, the adjustment of economic structures and the management of expectation on inflation,  paid more attention to maintaining steady growth, carried out the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and made great efforts in policy presetting and fine tuning. As a result, the overall national economy realized steady development and grew at a moderate pace.

According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first half of this year was 22,709.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8 percent calculated at comparable prices. Specifically, the growth of the first quarter was 8.1 percent, and 7.6 percent for the second quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 1,747.1 billion yuan, up by 4.3 percent; that of the secondary industry was 11,095.0 billion yuan, up by 8.3 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 9,867.7 billion yuan, up by 7.7 percent. The gross domestic product of the second quarter of 2012 went up by 1.8 percent on a quarterly basis.

1. Agricultural Production Showed Good Momentum and Summer Grain Continued to Get Harvests.

The total output of summer grain was 129.95 million tons, an increase of 3.56 million tons, up by 2.8 percent year-on-year. The output of summer rapeseed was 12.92 million tons, an increase of 460 thousand tons, up by 3.7 percent. In the first half of this year, the total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry reached 39.25 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 5.5 percent. The output of pork reached 25.88 million tons, up by 5.9 percent. The number of pigs in stock was 455.26 million, up by 3.5 percent, while the number of slaughtered pigs was 338.37 million, an increase of 5.6 percent.

2. Industrial Production Run in the Moderate Growth Range with Enterprises Profits Decreased Year-on-year.

In the first half, the total value added (calculated at comparable price) of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 10.5 percent year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points than that in the first quarter, or 3.8 percentage points lower than that in the same period of 2011. An analysis on different types of enterprises showed that the value added growth of the state-owned and state holding enterprises went up by 7.0 percent; collective enterprises 8.0 percent; share-holding enterprises 12.4 percent; and 6.3 percent growth for enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan provinces. The year-on-year growth of heavy industry was 10.1 percent, and 11.1 percent for the light industry. Out of all the 41 industrial divisions, 40 divisions registered year-on-year growth. In terms of different areas, the growth in eastern, central and western regions was 8.9 percent, 12.9 percent and 13.2 percent respectively. Out of the 471 kinds of industrial products, 332 of them registered year-on-year increase in output. Of this total, electricity went up by 3.7 percent, rolled steel up by 6.1 percent, cement up by 5.5 percent, ten kinds of nonferrous metals up by 6.7 percent, ethylene down by 3.3 percent, and motor vehicles up by 6.7 percent with the output of cars grew by 7.5 percent. In the first half, the sales ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.5 percent, or 0.6 percentage point lower than that in the same period of last year. The export delivery value of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5,050.5 billion yuan, up by 7.1 percent. In June, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 9.5 percent year-on-year, or 0.76 percent month-on-month.

In the first five months of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 1,843.4 billion yuan, down by 2.4 percent year-on-year. Among the 41 industrial divisions, 26 divisions registered year-on-year increase in profits, 13 divisions witnessed reduction in profits, and one division turned into profits from losses with another one exactly the reverse. In the first five months, the costs for per-hundred-yuan turnover of primary activities of the industrial enterprises above designated size reached 85.21 yuan, an increase of 0.28 yuan over that of the first quarter. The profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size from their primary activities was 5.34 percent.

3. Investment in Fixed Assets Achieved Steady Growth while the Growth of Infrastructure Investment Turned from Negative to Positive.

In the first half, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 15,071.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 20.4 percent (a real growth of 18 percent after deducting price factors), or 0.5 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter, or 5.2 percentage points lower than that in the same period of 2011. Of this total, that in the state-owned and state holding enterprises reached 4,898.6 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8 percent. In term of different areas, the growth in eastern, central and western regions was 19.3 percent, 25.3 percent and 23.9 percent respectively. The investment in the primary industry reached 365.4 billion yuan, up by 28.6 percent year-on-year; that in the secondary industry was 6,776.8 billion yuan, up by 23.7 percent; and that in the tertiary industry was 7,928.8 billion yuan, up by 17.4 percent. Of the investment in the secondary industry, that in industry reached 6,589.7 billion yuan, up by 23.8 percent. Of this total, the investment in mining was 501.4 billion yuan, up by 20.9 percent; manufacturing 5,401.9 billion yuan, up by 24.5 percent; and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water 686.4 billion yuan, up by 20.5 percent. The investment in infrastructural facilities (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water) was 2,176.2 billion yuan, up by 4.4 percent while that in the first quarter was down by 2.1 percent. The funds in place for investment in the first half were 18,095.0 billion yuan, up by 17 percent. Specifically, the government budgetary funds went up by 26.7 percent, domestic loans up by 5.8 percent, self-raising funds up by 22.9 percent, foreign investment down by 5.5 percent and funds from other sources up by 1.6 percent. The total planned investment in newly-started projects was 13,818.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2 percent. The number of projects started in the first half was 174,665, an increase of 7,518 year-on-year. In June, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) went up by 1.71 percent month-on-month.

4. Investment Growth in Real Estate Development Continued to Drop and the Decline of the Sales of Commercial Buildings Narrowed.

In the first half, the total investment in real estate development was 3,061.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.6 percent (a real growth of 14.3 percent after deducting price factors), which was 6.9 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter, or 16.3 percentage points lower than that in the same period of 2011. Of this total, the investment in residential buildings went up by 12.0 percent. Floor space of houses newly started in the first half was 923.8 million square meters, down by 7.1 percent, while that in the first quarter was up by 0.3 percent and that in the first half of 2011 was up by 23.6 percent. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings started in the first half dropped by 10.7 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 399.64 million square meters, down by 10 percent, the decline of which narrowed by 3.6 percentage points than that in the first quarter, while it went up by 12.9 percent in the first half of 2011. Of this total, that of residential buildings went down by 11.2 percent. The sales of commercial buildings in the first half were 2,331.4 billion yuan, down by 5.2 percent, the decline of which narrowed by 9.4 percentage points than that in the first quarter, while it grew by 24.1 percent in the first half of 2011. Of this total, that of residential buildings was down by 6.5 percent. In the first half, the land space purchased by real estate development enterprises was 175.43 million square meters, down by 19.9 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 314.08 million square meters, up by 33.1 percent. The sources of funds for real estate development enterprises in the first half reached 4,332.9 billion yuan, up by 5.7 percent. Specifically, the growth of domestic loans was up by 8.1 percent, self-raising funds up by 12.9 percent, foreign investment down by 53.9 percent and funds from other sources down by 0.7 percent.

5. Sales at Domestic Market Enjoyed Steady Growth while Retail Growth Was Faster than Catering Industry.

In the first half, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 9,822.2 billion yuan, an increase of 14.4 percent (a real growth of 11.2 percent after deducting price factors), which was 0.4 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter, or 2.4 percentage points lower than that in the same period of 2011. Specifically, the retail sales of the enterprises (units) above designated size stood at 4,659.2 billion yuan, up by 14.9 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 8,512.3 billion yuan, up by 14.3 percent, and that in rural areas stood at 1,309.9 billion yuan, up by 14.5 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the total income of catering industry was 1,083.7 billion yuan, up by 13.2 percent year-on-year; and retail sales of goods was 8,738.5 billion yuan, up by 14.5 percent. In particular, the retail sales of enterprises (units) above designated size reached 4,306.5 billion yuan, up by 15 percent. Specifically, the sales of motor vehicles rose by 9.1 percent, furniture grew up by 25.1 percent, and household appliances and audio-video equipment went up by 3.3 percent. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 13.7 percent year-on-year (a real growth of 12.1 percent after deducting price factors), or 1.08 percent month-on-month.

6. Imports and Exports Showed Slight Increase while the General Trade Enjoyed Faster Growth.

The total value of imports and exports in the first half of 2012 was 1,839.84 billion US dollars, a year-on-year growth of 8 percent, which was 0.8 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter, or 17.8 percentage points lower than that in the same period of 2011. The total value of exports was 954.38 billion US dollars, up by 9.2 percent; and that of imports was 885.46 billion US dollars, up by 6.7 percent. The trade surplus was 68.92 billion US dollars. Of the total value of imports and exports, that from general trade was 975.09 billion US dollars, up by 8.9 percent; and that from processing trade was 643.15 billion US dollars, up by 4.3 percent. Among the value of exports, that from general trade was 460.58 billion US dollars, up by 10.1 percent; and that from processing trade was 415.27 billion US dollars, up by 6.4 percent. Among the value of imports, that from general trade was 514.52 billion US dollars, up by 7.8 percent; and that from processing trade was 227.88 billion US dollars, up by 0.7 percent. In June, the total value of imports and exports was 328.69 billion US dollars, up by 9.0 percent year-on-year. The total value of exports was 180.21 billion US dollars, up by 11.3 percent; and that of imports was 148.48 billion US dollars, up by 6.3 percent.

7. Money Supply Kept Steady Growth and Newly Increased Loans Increased Year-on-year.

By the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 92.50 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 13.6 percent, which was the same level as that at the end of 2011, or 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of May; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 28.75 trillion yuan, up by 4.7 percent, which was 3.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of 2011, or 1.2 percentage points higher than that at the end of May; the balance of cash in circulation (M0) was 4.93 trillion yuan, up by 10.8 percent. The amount of outstanding loans at the end of June was 59.64 trillion yuan, grew by 4.86 trillion yuan than that at the end of 2011, or an increase of 683.3 billion yuan as compared with the end of June last year. The amount of outstanding deposits was 88.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.38 trillion yuan, or 42.5 billion yuan more than that in the same period of last year.

8. The Year-on-Year Growth of Consumer Price Continued to Fall Back while Producer Price Declined.

In the first half, the consumer price went up by 3.3 percent year-on-year, which was 0.5 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter, or 2.1 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year. Specifically, the price went up by 3.3 percent in cities and 3.3 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food rose by 6.9 percent; tobacco, liquor and articles rose by 3.5 percent; clothing up by 3.5 percent; household facilities, articles and maintenance services up by 2.2 percent; health care and personal articles grew by 2.4 percent; recreation, education, culture articles and services grew by 0.2 percent; housing went up by 1.8 percent; transportation and communication kept the same level. In June, the consumer prices went up by 2.2 percent year-on-year, or down by 0.6 percent month-on-month. In the first half, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 0.6 percent, while it went up by 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2012, or up by 7 percent in the same period of 2011. In June, the price dropped by 2.1 percent year-on-year, or down by 0.7 percent month-on-month. The purchasing price for industrial producers was down by 0.3 percent year-on-year. In June, the price was down by 2.5 percent year-on-year and 0.8 percent month-on-month.

9. Urban and Rural Residents' Income Increased Rapidly with a Higher Growth for Rural Residents.

In the first half, the per capita total income of urban households was 13,679 yuan. Specifically, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 12,509 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 13.3 percent, or a real growth of 9.7 percent after deducting price factors, which was 2.1 percentage points higher than that in the same period of 2011. Of the per capita total income of urban households, the year-on-year growth of wage income was 13 percent; transferred income 13.4 percent; net income from business operation 14.4 percent; and 14.2 percent from property income. The per capita cash income of rural households was 4,303 yuan, up by 16.1 percent year-on-year, or 12.4 percent in real terms, dropped by 1.3 percentage points than that in the same period of last year. Specifically, the growth of wage income was 17.3 percent; household operation income 14.4 percent; property income 15.3 percent; and 22.9 percent from transferred income. The number of rural migrant workers in the first half was 166.67 million, up by 2.6 percent year-on-year. The average monthly income of migrant workers was 2,200 yuan, up by 14.9 percent. In the first half, the median of per capita disposable income of urban households was 10,937 yuan, up by 14.6 percent year-on-year; the median of per capita cash income of rural households was 3,690 yuan, up by 16.9 percent.

In the next phase, guided by the scientific outlook on development and the main line of accelerating the transformation of economic development, we should further balance the relationships of stabilizing economic growth, adjusting economic structures and managing the expectation on inflation, make more efforts to pursue a steady growth, continuously strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation, and try the best to achieve a sound and fast economic growth.

Notes:

1. The growth rate of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

2. Approved by the State Council, the seasonally adjusted indicators of the following four would be released by the National Bureau of Statistics from April 2011: the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP), the month-on-month changes of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods. 

According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, quarterly GDP of 2011, GDP in the first and second quarters of 2012 and the month-on-month changes of the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retail sales of consumer goods from June 2011 to June 2012 have been revised. The revised figures and figures for June as well as GDP of the second quarter of 2012 are as follows:

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in each quarter of 2011 and in the first two quarters of 2012 were 2.2 percent, 2.4 percent, 2.3 percent, 1.9 percent, 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent respectively.  

3. From 2012, the NBS implemented the new Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities (GB/T4754-2011).

4. The eastern areas include 11 provinces and municipalities: Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan; central areas cover 8 provinces: Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan; western area include 12 provinces, autonomous regions and municipality: Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang. 

5. Data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs; data of money supply and deposits and loans are from the People's Bank of China. 

6. The median of per capita income of urban and rural households refer to the per capita income of household lied in the middle of all surveyed households which are ranked from low to high based on per capital income level.