Trade Resources Economy The Chinese Economy Has Recovered Solidly Based on Latest Data

The Chinese Economy Has Recovered Solidly Based on Latest Data

The Chinese economy, which saw a notable slowdown early this year, has recovered solidly based on latest data, and analysts expect the recovery momentum to be stable.

One of the most convincing indicators emerged on Monday, or "Singles' Day." Originally designated as an alternative to Valentine's Day, November 11 has been more recently turned into a virtual shopping day, or the Chinese version of "Cyber Monday," by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba.com.

A 24-hour online shopping spree on Monday, fueled by heavy discounts, ended with a record high sales volume of a staggering 35 billion yuan ($5.7 billion), jumping 83 percent from a year ago.

China has the world's biggest online population, with 564 million netizens as of the end of last year. It also has 180 million single people. The annual shopping gala was seen as an event which would help kindle the spending power of the 1.3 billion Chinese people.

The turnover was nearly three times that of the US "Cyber Monday." It was more than half the average daily retail sales volume recorded for the whole of China last month, which was at 69.3 billion yuan.

Retail sales, one of the three main drivers for the world's second-largest economy, grew 13.3 percent year-on-year in October to 2.15 trillion yuan, the National Bureau of Statistics also said on Saturday. In the first 10 months this year, it rose 13 percent year-on-year to 19.03 trillion yuan.

According to the NBS, China's urban fixed-asset investment, another economic growth driver, expanded 20.1 percent year on year to 35.17 trillion yuan in the January-October period.

China's exports, the third economic driver, rebounded more than expected to 5.6 percent year- on-year in October, from the year-on-year contraction of 0.3 percent in September, according to customs figures.

Also in October, China's industrial added value growth accelerated to 10.3 percent from a year earlier, the second-highest this year and 0.1 percentage points less than that for August.

China uses industrial added value to measure business activities of designated large enterprises that each have an annual turnover of more than 20 million yuan. It is an important indicator to weigh China's industrial activities and the country's manufacturing-based economy.

"Accelerating industrial production growth, steady consumption and investment demand, together with a rebound in exports suggest that China's growth recovery is on a firm footing," an HSBC research team led by chief China economist Qu Hongbin said in a note.

The rebound of China's export growth in October beat market expectations and provided a temporary relief for China's external outlook, but caution is still warranted in the coming months, Qu said.

"On the domestic front, consumption and investment growth remained steady. This could continue to offset the uncertainty in external demand... We expect Beijing to keep the current policy stance in place to maintain steady growth going into 2014," he added.

China's gross domestic product growth accelerated to 7.8 percent in the third quarter this year, up from 7.5 percent in the second quarter and 7.7 percent in the first quarter. In 2012, China's full-year annual growth eased to 7.8 percent, its weakest since 1999.

Lu Ting, chief China economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, echoed Qu's judgment.

"Growth momentum in October was quite solid, the recovery momentum is slightly stronger and more sustainable than what markets had expected," Lu said in a research note.

The markets might need to slightly revise up their China GDP growth forecasts for the fourth quarter, he suggested. "With the current momentum, it's likely that Wall Street economists need to revise up their forecasts soon."

Lu said his institution saw slightly more upside risk to its 7.7-percent GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter, which is already above market consensus of around 7.5 percent.

For next year, "we think it's quite likely that year-on-year GDP growth will be close to 8.0 percent in the first half of 2014 due partially to a low comparison base," he said.

"October macro data should be on the whole positive for market sentiment, though good news from the activity side might make investors worry about a less growth-supportive policy stance or even tightening," Lu argued.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of China International Capital Corporation, said that October data pointed to relatively good growth momentum in China.

"We stick to our earlier judgment that the relatively fast growth of the Chinese economy will keep going until the second quarter of next year," he said.

China is set to achieve the government's full-year growth target of 7.5 percent, which would help create a favorable macro environment for the country's deepening reform, according to Peng.

The ongoing third plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which opened on Saturday and ends on Tuesday, is expected to unveil a blueprint of comprehensive reform for the next decade.

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Data Indicates China's Recovery on Firm Footing
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