The Cotlook A Index fell to around 90 cents per pound towards the end of May 2013, and the China Cotton Index (Type 328) fell to 19,350 Yuan per ton, or 142 cents per pound, during the same period. Assuming the current Chinese reserve policy continues as announced by the government, the Cotlook A Index is projected to average 88 cents per pound in 2012/13 and 115 cents per pound in 2013/14.
Overall, planting in the Northern Hemisphere for 2013/14 is progressing well, an estimated 29.8 million hectares of cotton area is forecast in 2013/14. As a result, global cotton production is forecast to drop from a record of 27.8 million tons in 2011/12 to 26.4 million tons during 2012/13, and further to 25 million in 2013/14.
Cotton planting in China for 2013/14 is almost complete. All planting is expected to be completed by the first week in June. In 2013/14, Chinese cotton planted area is projected at 4.6 million hectares, a 15% reduction from ten years ago; and production is forecast at 6.7 million tons, the second lowest crop in a decade.
In India, cotton planting this season has been normal, but the monsoon will determine if last season’s area can be maintained. In 2013/14, record cotton area is projected at 11.9 million hectares, up 51% from 2003/04; and cotton production is projected at 6.2 million tons, more than double the 3 million tons of production in 2003/04.
In the United States, cotton was planted at a rapid pace in the month of May. In 2013/14, U.S. cotton area is projected at 3.4 million hectares, a 30% reduction from ten years ago, and cotton production is projected to decline from 4 million tons in 2003/04 to 3 million tons in 2013/14.
In Pakistan, cotton is being planted at a good pace in Punjab and Sindh. In 2013/14, cotton area is projected at 2.9 million hectares, and cotton production at 2 million tons, the same as the previous season and similar to the 10-year average.
Note:
The price projection for 2012/13 is based on the ending stocks/mill use ratio in the world-less-China in 2010/11 (estimate), in 2011/12 (estimate) and 2012/13 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2011/12 (estimate) and 2012/13 (projection), and on the average price for the first ten months of 2012/13. 95% confidence interval: 85 to 93 cents per pound.
The price projection for 2013/14 is based on the ending stocks/consumption ratio in the world-less-China in 2011/12 (estimate), in 2012/13 (projection) and in 2013/14 (projection), on the ratio of Chinese net imports to world imports in 2012/13 (estimate) and 2013/14 (projection), and on the price projection of 2012/13. 95% confidence interval: 96 to 139 cents per pound.
