EFIC has examined the dynamics behind Australia's trade surplus that reached $1.4b in January, its highest level in nearly 2 years.
"Export values have surged, driven by increases in rural and resource export volumes. This is despite steep declines in commodity prices to multi-year lows over the past month that have been driven by slowing growth and signs of financial stress in China," said EFIC senior economist Cassandra Winzenried.
"The trade balance is likely to continue in surplus as the Australian resource boom moves from the investment to the export phase," said Ms Winzenried.
This is fuelling speculation that not just a trade, but a current account, surplus may emerge, for the first time since 1975.
Meanwhile, several sentiment surveys released this month suggest that exporter sentiment is improving despite the still strong A$, the uncertainties about China, and the sluggish world economy.
"The EFIC Exporter Sentiment research finds SME sharing this optimism," said Ms Winzenried. "Ninety four per cent of SME exporters expect export sales to increase or remain the same over the next 12 months."
Australia's International Business Survey also contains some good news.
"Seventy four per cent of respondents have plans to expand into two or more markets over the next two years," said Ms Winzenried.
"And almost three quarters of respondents say their international operations are as profitable as their local ones, or more profitable."
