CEPD Flashed a Yellow-Blue Light

Taipei, Dec. 28, 2012 (CENS)--The Cabinet-level Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) flashed a yellow-blue light, for the third straight month, for Taiwan’s business status in November, indicating the economy is still in a transitional stage on its road to recovery. 

The CEPD pointed out that it may still take a while before the economy enters the realm of green light, indicating economic stability, as the economy is still proceeding towards recovery at staggering pace. 

Hung Jui-bin, director of the department of economic research, the CEPD, pointed out that in November the indicators of finance, production, and consumption improved further, the job market stabilized, trade decline alleviated, and both leading and coincident indicators advanced slightly, underscoring gradual departure of the domestic economy from the doldrums. 

Citing latest report from the United Nations, Hung pointed out that the GDP growth of the global economy could reach 2.4% next year and may even hit 3.8%, should a number of problems are successfully resolved, including the fiscal-cliff crisis of the U.S., the turmoil of the euro region, and hard landing of the Chinese economy. “We could be cautiously optimistic towards the global and Taiwanese economy next year,” said Hung. 

The green light in November is translated to 20 points for the score of monitoring indicators, up one point from October, thanks mainly to switch to yellow blue light for manufacturing sales, from blue light in the previous month. 

The other eight constituent indicators, including money supply M1B, industrial output index, customs-clearance exports, maintained the same light and score as the previous month. 

The index of leading indicators, a barometer for future economic course, picked up for the fourth straight month in November, continuing an upward movement at an accelerated pace. 

The score of 20 points for monitoring indicators in November was three points away for the signal to switch to green light.