China is expected to continue increasing energy efficiency this year, resulting in muted growth in oil and coal consumption, according to new projections unveiled by the National Energy Administration on Friday.
Total energy consumption in China is expected to rise 3.2% year on year to 3.88 billion mt of coal equivalent or mtce this year, according to the NEA, which is under the purview of central economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission.
In contrast, coal consumption will edge up 1.6% year on year to 3.8 billion mt while apparent demand for oil will rise 1.8% year on year to 510 million mt, the NEA said. Apparent demand for natural gas this year will increase 14.5% year on year to 193 billion cu m.
China is estimated to use 0.71 mtce of energy to produce every Yuan 10,000 ($1,653) of GDP, an energy intensity rate that is 3.9% lower than last year and down 12% from 2010, NEA said.
Overall consumption of non-fossil fuels will rise to 10.7% of total energy consumption this year, with the proportion of natural gas at 6.5%, the agency said, without giving any data for 2013.
Coal consumption as a proportion of the total energy mix will fall below 65% in 2014, NEA said. This is an acceleration of an earlier target set by the central government -- which in its 2011-15 Five-Year Plan report for energy development released early last year was aiming for coal consumption to be reduced to 65% of the total energy mix by 2015.
Instead, more nuclear, hydro, wind, renewables and solar power will be developed this year, the NEA said.
Domestic crude oil production is expected to rise 0.5% year on year to 208 million mt in 2014, while natural gas output will increase 12% year on year to 131 billion cubic meters. This estimate includes a shale gas production forecast of 1.5 billion cu m and coalbed methane output projected at 18 billion cu m but does not include any synthetic coal-to-gas production target, NEA said.
The latest target for natural gas also surpasses the earlier FYP target, which aimed for gas production to exceed 130 billion cu m by 2015. That plan also called for natural gas to make up 7.5% of the energy mix by 2015.
