Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
In October, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 55.5 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher over the previous month, still staying above the threshold.
In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry continued to stay above the threshold, achieved 60.2 percent, went up by 2.2 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the producing growth of construction industry speeded up; that of services industry was 54.4 percent, up by 1.8 percentage points than that in the previous month, except for the wholesale trade industry and air transport industry, non-manufacturing purchasing manager indices of other industries were all above the threshold. Of which, the indices of retail trade industry, hotel service industry,ecological protection, environmental management and public facilities administration industry stayed at 60 percent and above, and the total enterprise business has increased obviously.
The new orders index went down slightly. The new orders index was 51.6 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, which indicating that the market demand of non-manufacturing industry kept growing, but the growth slowed down slightly. In view of different industries, the new orders index of construction industry was 55.4 percent, down by 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, which indicating that the market demand growth of construction industry kept increasing, while the growth rate dropped a little. The new orders index of service industry was 50.7 percent, 0.1 percentage points lower over the previous month, basically remained at the same level over last month, of which, the new orders indices of retail trade industry, post industry, hotel service industry, road transport industry, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services industry were above the threshold, and the market demand increased. The new orders indices of wholesale trade industry, water transport industry, real estate industry, resident services and repairs industry were below the threshold, and the market demands dropped.
Intermediate input price index went up, reached 58.1 percent, up by 0.6 percentage points over last month, indicating that the intermediate input price increases of non-manufacturing enterprises has expanded. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price index of construction industry was 61.5 percent, up by 8.8 percentage points over the previous month, which indicating that the production and operation costs growth of construction enterprises have accelerated. That of service industry was 57.2 percent, dropping 1.5 percentage points over the previous month. The intermediate input price indices of all sub-industries of service industry were staying above the threshold, which indicating that the production and operation costs have a general increase, while the increase narrowed.
The subscription price index declined. This index was 50.5 percent, down by 0.8 percentage points over the previous month, staying above the threshold for 3 consecutive months, which showing that the non-manufacturing subscription price continued to increase, while the increase narrowed. In view of different industries, the subscription price index of construction industry was 50.9 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. That of services industry was 50.4 percent, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points over the previous month. Of which, the subscription price indices of hotel service industry, Internet, software and IT services industry, ecological protection, environmental management and public facilities administration industry, retail trade industry were above the threshold, that of telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services industry, resident services and repairs industry, loading, unloading and warehousing industry, air transport industry were below the threshold.
Business activities expectation index kept positioning in a high place. This index placed highly in the range, reached 63.4 percent, up by 2.5 percentage points over the previous month, which showing that the proportion of non-manufacturing enterprises maintaining optimistic about the operating expectation in the future increased. In view of different industries, the business activities expectation indices of retail trade industry, post industry, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services industry, house construction industry, positioned in a high place which above 70 percent.
Annotations:
1. Seasonal Adjustment Note
The purchasing manager’s survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. At present, time series of China's non-manufacturing PMI have met the technical requirements of the seasonally adjustment, and the sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data on seasonally adjusted will be released since March 2012.
2. Explanatory Notes
China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, intermediate input price index, subscription price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.
3. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 27 manufacturing industry categories in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011), and was conducted in 1200 sampling enterprises of the non-manufacturing sector countrywide.
4. Survey Methods
Non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey was conducted in PPS ( Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.
The survey was conducted by Direct Reporting of Statistics Networking and carried out by interviewing the enterprises’ purchasing managers monthly using questionnaire method.
5. Calculation Methods
Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.
