US Energy Information Administration Will Estimate a Natural Gas Storage Withdrawal

Analysts expect that the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday will estimate a natural gas storage withdrawal of between 137 and 141 Bcf for the reporting week ended Friday. 

A drawdown within expectations would be greater than the 89-Bcf pull from stocks for the comparable week last year, yet slightly smaller than the five-year-average drawdown of 144 Bcf, according to EIA. As a result, the 88-Bcf deficit to last year should increase, while the 320-Bcf surplus over the five-year average should increase slightly. 

The wider range of analyst expectations spanned from a withdrawal of between 124 and 184 Bcf. 

EIA estimated a 201-Bcf withdrawal for the week that ended January 4, reducing the overall stocks to 3.316 Bcf. 

Bentek Energy's supply/demand model predicts a withdrawal of 132 Bcf for the week that ended on Friday, while its pipeline flow model anticipates a withdrawal of 146 Bcf. Bentek is a unit of Platts. 

Gene McGillian, a trader with TFS Energy Futures, whose estimate of a 140-pull is in the middle of the range of expectations, said "the weather was warmer than during the previous week with mild temperatures all across the consuming regions, and therefore the storage pull is slightly below the five-year average." 

Tim Evans, an analyst with Citi Futures Perspective, who estimated a 124-Bcf draw that is closer to the lower end of expectations, said a pull higher than this forecast would indicate "some further tightening in the market's supply/demand balance, with more bullish implications for the weeks ahead."