According to Strategies Unlimited, revenues for LEDs in lighting applications, which includes both replacement lamps and luminaires, are expected to have a CAGR of 30% and reach a total value of US$13 billion by 2017.
HB-LEDs saw a precipitous fall in prices over the last several years, which helped reduce the price of LED lamps and luminaires, but this decrease in prices has been slowing down in recent times. According to Philip Smallwood, research director of LEDs and lighting at Strategies Unlimited, "ASPs of packaged LEDs are declining at a slower rate than previous years, as super high power LEDs increase in the market. While prices for all LEDs are decreasing, the increased penetration of these SHP LEDs (which have a higher price) is raising the overall ASP for all packaged LEDs."
Efficacy improvements are continuing to take place in the market as well, with the average efficacy of commercially available LEDs for lighting applications increasing to greater than 100lm/W for 1W packages while multi-chip arrays reached efficacy of 200lm/W. LED efficacy is no longer the gating factor for LED applications, cost is. Lighting applications have seen a variety of different packages used over the previous year, including arrays, high CRI, tighter color bins, directional, multi-directional and high voltage LEDs.
Strategies Unlimited has reported that the growth rate for LED package units and revenues are both expected to be in double digits for the forecast period. According to Smallwood, "While growth in the market can be attributed to improvements in the technology and decreases in its price, the largest penetration increases seem to be coming from government mandates that either restrict incumbent lighting technologies or push the usage of LEDs." One of the largest impacts of these regulations will be seen in 2014 in the US, as the implementation of the Energy and Independence Security Act of 2007 is phasing out 60W and 40W incandescent A-lamps.
