The rise of LED technology is affecting every part of the commercial lighting industry. Falling prices and improving quality are driving widespread adoption of LEDs, and this single technology appears likely to surpass all others in nearly every metric of quality and efficiency. As a result, worldwide unit shipments of LED lamps will grow from 68 million in 2013 to 1.28 billion annually by 2021, and the markets for every other lighting technology will contract over that period, according to research firm Navigant Research.
"LED lighting has already begun to enter the commercial market in significant volume, and will grow rapidly over the remainder of the decade," said Jesse Foote, research analyst at Navigant Research.
Although shipments of LED products will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 44.3% through 2021, they will not be sufficient to compensate for the overall decline in commercial lighting revenues as the industry moves toward much more long-lasting lamps. Lamp and luminaire revenues will both grow for the next few years before beginning an inexorable decline in 2017, Navigant believes.
