The outcome of proposals for 215 ground-mounted solar photovoltaic (PV) farms in the UK, with capacities in excess of 5MW, are now being re-evaluated, according to Solarbuzz. This re-evaluation follows new, and unexpected, proposals from the UK government to adjust incentive mechanisms for ground-mounted solar PV farms beginning in April 2015.
"Ground-mounted solar PV capacity deployed in the UK has exceeded 2GW during the past two years," noted Finlay Colville, VP at Solarbuzz. "While there was no official cap placed on ground-mounted PV solar farms, recent installation rates appear to be well above the levels the government was expecting."
The proposed changes from the UK's Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) include restricting Renewables Obligation Certificates (ROCs) to new solar PV farms below 5MW in size, beginning in April 2015. Previously, the UK industry assumed ROCs would be available to any size of ground-mounted solar PV farm, until March 2017.
"If the proposed changes by the DECC go ahead, it will force investors and developers of large-scale solar farms in the UK to shift to the Contracts for Difference scheme, two years earlier than expected," added Colville. "Combined with the threat that ground-mounted solar farms that remain on ROCs could have a capacity-based degression mechanism imposed, the prospects for UK solar farms can now be divided into three new size categories."
Small-scale solar farms, below 5MW, have access to 1.4 ROCs until 31 March 2015, with no cap on the cumulative level deployed. Between April 2015 and March 2017, this size category is expected to remain on previously-outlined ROC banding levels for ground-mounted solar, but could eventually be subject to capacity-based limits, in an attempt to curtail excessive ground-mount deployment under ROCs.
According to Solarbuzz, there are currently 81 solar PV farms in the 1-5MW range that could be completed under the ROC scheme, with 45 applications already approved. Renewed focus on small-scale solar farms can now be expected, especially from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that remain cautious about the operational risks in shifting from ROCs to the untested Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme.
Mid-scale solar farms, above 5MW and below approximately 30MW, are the group most at risk from DECC's recent proposals. After March 2015, this size category would be unable to access ROCs, and will be potentially too small to justify inclusion by project developers within the CfD auction process; therefore, many of the projects in the 5-30MW range now have a potential hard-stop date of 31 March 2015.
Having been the main size category driving recent ground-mounted solar PV activity in the UK, the pipeline for 5-30 MW solar farms has grown to 198 projects. More than 80 of these projects have full planning consent, with most of these likely to be completed before April 2015, the firm said.
Plans for projects in the large-scale size category, above 30 MW, have become more common in the past two years. So far, four sites above 30MW have been completed under ROCs, with 17 more applications submitted for planning review within the past 18 months. "Developers need to decide quickly which projects can be fast-tracked for completion under ROCs before April 2015, which are viable under CfDs, and which should be terminated," Colville said.
"Understanding the current pipeline of ground-mounted solar farms in the UK has now become essential," Colville continued. "Investors and developers need to re-assess the risk profile of their projects under the adjusted-ROC and CfD schemes. Engineering, procurement, and construction firms, or EPCs, will reap the greatest rewards by focusing on near-term opportunities for small- and mid-scale projects. Suppliers of components will need to understand which projects are likely to be prioritized and which will be terminated."
