Quarterly solar photovoltaic (PV) demand in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is forecast to reach the 10 gigawatt (GW) level for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2014. According to Solarbuzz, annual APAC PV demand in 2014 is forecast to grow 19% on year, driven mainly by a year-end installation rush in China, as well as strong growth in Japan.
Overall, APAC PV demand is forecast to continue growing and to maintain shares in global PV market of more than 50% in 2015. China contributed the most to demand in the APAC PV market in the fourth quarter, although China's PV demand was weaker than expected in the first three quarters. Ground-mount projects still dominate the China market, as the building-mount segment supported by distributed PV subsidies slowly builds up.
"Although the National Energy Administration recently announced that only 3.79GW PV systems were connected to the grid, many projects began construction during the first three quarters of 2014," said Isabella Ni, China analyst for Solarbuzz. "With a year-end surge of installations, even after three weak quarters, full-year PV demand in China will exceed its 2013 level."
PV demand in Japan during 2014 is forecast to grow 46% on year in 2014, due to favorable government incentives, according to the Solarbuzz report. Project pipelines also provided strong support to the Japan PV market, reaching more than 56GW through the end of third-quarter 2014.
"Since the end of third-quarter 2014, five regional utilities in Japan announced suspension of replies for non-residential projects; however, these issues will not significantly impact PV demand in Japan through 2015," said Holly Hu, Japan and India analyst at Solarbuzz. Total demand within the five utility regions accounts for about 35% of Japan's demand in 2014. PV projects that have already received approval for grid connection are not affected.
In India, the Minister of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) proposed increasing the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) target from 22GW to 100GW by 2022. Twelve states also announced their ultra-solar park plans, with about 20GW of projects in the pipeline. "India may become the most exciting PV market in APAC region during the next several years," Hu said. "Since the new Prime Minister Narendra Modii came on board, the government of India has announced many ambitious solar PV development plans."
In Australia, the new Renewable Energy Target (RET) is still under negotiation, while residential installations are driving PV demand in the fourth quarter to their highest level. Meanwhile, the ground-mount segment is also increasing, driven by construction of three large-scale, ground-mount projects. "The new China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, which potentially may resolve the trade dispute with China on PV panels, is also good news for the Australia PV market," Ni said.
Thailand and the emerging APAC PV markets are also showing growth potential in the coming years. The ground-mount segment is forecast to increase its market share in emerging markets, as large projects are currently planned in the Philippines, Pakistan, and other countries.
