Emerging markets are forecast to help bring stability to ailing solar industry,with up to 12GW of new solar capacity added in 2017 up from just 1.6GW in 2012,according to IMS Research.The research institute's latest study evaluated the potential for solar additions in 40 countries around the world,finding that up to 30GW of cumulative solar capacity will be added in emerging markets over the next four years,helping to stabilize the industry amidst a raft of incentive cuts in core European markets.
IMS Research found that although many of these emerging markets may present significant risks to companies seeking to enter them,many also offer excellent growth prospects.Given the great uncertainty in emerging solar markets,two forecast scenarios were presented in the study which predicted that 2.1-3.5GW of new solar capacity will be added in 2013,growing to 2.9-12.2GW in 2017.
Having assessed a number of criteria,including macroeconomic factors,potential market size,project profitability,near-term policy and project pipelines in each of the 40 countries,IMS Research found that some of the most appealing markets will be South Africa,Thailand,Chile,Romania and Brazil.Tier-two markets,which scored slightly lower,but still may offer opportunities to solar companies,but possibly not without risks,included Argentina,Ecuador,Turkey and Mexico.
While each country's market is unique,some recurring drivers of solar deployment have emerged.In Africa and the Middle East,low,highly subsidized power prices have prevented renewables from taking off,but heavy reliance on fossil fuels for power generation and an expected 26%demand increase by 2017 will reverse the trend.In emerging European markets,low retail power prices combined with a high reliance on coal,hydro,and nuclear make RES requirements the main driver for solar build-out in the region.Turkey is also looking at solar to potentially ease its surging power demand.Escalating power demand and increasing reliance on fuel imports have ignited interest in renewables in Asia.India has the highest mid-term solar market potential,driven by high industrial power prices and frequent power shortages.In addition,a heavy reliance on oil for power,high commercial and industrial power prices,and an expected 26%increase in power demand by 2017 have sparked solar development activity in Latin America.
IMS Research captured a huge pipeline of planned,approved and under-construction solar projects in these emerging markets.Close to 20GW of solar projects were identified by the study,14GW of which are in the pipeline stage indicating the potentially huge market growth lying ahead.However,many of the regions investigated are facing notoriously slow approval and implementation processes and less than 1GW of this pipeline is currently under construction.In terms of pipeline size,Chile currently leads the way with more than 3GW of projects,followed by Romania,South Africa,Serbia and Israel.The research institute also identified more than 300 developers and EPCs with major solar projects planned in these emerging markets.Securum Equity Partners is perhaps the most notable developer on this list and is behind the 1GW project being proposed in Serbia over the next four years-whether this project is fully completed remains to be seen.IMS Research also identified another 42 developers with pipelines of at least 100MW,with projects in Chile,Romania and South Africa featuring predominantly.
