During the third quarter of 2013, end-market demand from the global solar PV industry reached a new record of 9GW. This record demand is up 6% on quarter and almost 20% on year, according to Solarbuzz.
Both mid-year quarters, second-quarter 2013 and third-quarter 2013, have achieved record solar PV demand levels, resulting in more than 17GW of new solar PV installations. This mid-year surge in new installations is almost 3GW more than the solar PV industry has ever achieved in the past.
"The record levels of mid-year demand in 2013 have been critical to the overall recovery of the solar PV segment," added Michael Barker, senior analyst at Solarbuzz. "Restored confidence in end-market growth is allowing leading solar PV manufacturers to pursue aggressive shipment strategies within both established and emerging territories, despite previous concerns that trade wars could dampen growth."
During the third quarter, there were continued signs of stabilized pricing, with module ASPs decreasing by less than 1% on quarter, compared to the 12% price decline between second-quarter 2012 and third-quarter 2012. Combined with strong industry demand in 2013, end-market revenues have increased for three consecutive quarters and exceeded US$13 billion during the third quarter of 2013.
End-market solar PV system revenues are forecast to reach US$21 billion in fourth-quarter 2013, with full-year 2013 revenues expected to be in the range of US$65-75 billion. This compares to US$68 billion in 2012 and US$92 billion in 2011 when module and system prices were 20-50% higher than today.
During fourth-quarter 2013, solar PV demand is forecast to grow to 10-12GW, with half of the characteristic year-end surge in demand coming from China and the US.
Strong end-market demand is set to continue during first-quarter 2014, historically the weakest quarter for the industry. This is being driven by leading solar PV countries whose scheduled incentive rate reductions align with end-March fiscal years. As a result, during first-quarter 2014, record quarterly solar PV installations are forecast in both Japan and the UK, as project developers rush to complete large-scale projects before April 2014 policy adjustments.
By analyzing the latest end-market PV forecasts for the top 100 solar PV countries, Solarbuzz now estimates that global PV demand for 2014 will be in the range of 45-55GW. The Asia Pacific (APAC) region is forecast to have more than 50% of the 2014 demand, with emerging regions increasing their global share to 10%. Similar to second-half 2013, 2014 is forecast to be dominated by two countries in particular, China and Japan, with 40-45% of the annual demand.
