The global apparent steel demand growth expectation for 2013 of worldsteel has been revised upwards today, October 7, to 3.1 percent to 1.475 billion metric tons, up from 2.9 percent in the association's short range outlook published back in April this year, mainly due to fast growth in Chinese steel demand.
During the 47th annual meeting of the World Steel Association (worldsteel) held in Sao Paulo on October 7, Hans Jürgen Kerkhoff, chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee, said that "the key risks in the global economy, which are the euro zone crisis and a hard landing for the Chinese economy, have continued to stabilize through the last six months," since the publication of worldsteel's April short range outlook report. Mr. Kerkhoff stated that they still consider that the US will resolve its fiscal constraints soon and that the correction in the euro zone has been more severe than viewed in the association's previous outlook, but that the improvement seen recently is now expected to continue for the rest of 2013.
Major emerging economies, particularly India and Brazil, have not performed as hoped due to key structural issues, the chairman of the worldsteel Economics Committee said, adding that these factors have led to lower global steel demand, with China being the one exception. Chinese steel demand in 2013 is forecast to grow by a hefty six percent, pushing up the world's overall steel demand growth expectation for the year up to 3.1 percent, despite steel demand growing by only 0.7 percent in the rest of the world.
In 2014, worldsteel expects to see a continued recovery in global steel demand with the advanced economies overall returning to positive growth, resulting in steel demand growth of 3.3 percent to a total of 1.52 billion metric tons for the year, though Chinese steel demand growth is foreseen to slow down as compared to the current year to three percent. "With risks within the developed world receding, there is some uncertainty emerging from developing countries due to unresolved structural issues, political instability and volatile financial markets. All in all, despite economic conditions for the steel industry remaining uncertain and challenging, we are forecasting further growth for steel demand in 2014," Mr. Kerkhoff concluded.
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