According to USDA’s first survey-based forecast of the 2013 crop, U.S. cotton production is projected at 13.1 million bales, 447,000 bales below July’s estimate and nearly 4.3 million bales below last season’s crop. The 2013 production decline is the result of both smaller area and a lower national yield.
Based on the August forecast, total cotton planted acreage in 2013 is estimated at 10.2 million acres, slightly below the area reported in the June Acreage report.
With planted area down 17 percent from a year ago, the estimated harvested area is expected to decline by a similar amount and is forecast at 7.7 million acres. Based on the latest forecast, the 2013 national abandonment rate is projected at 24 percent, equal to the 2012 rate. The U.S. yield is forecast at 813 pounds per harvested acre, well below last season’s 887-pound record but near the 5-year average.
Upland production is projected at 12.5 million bales, 25 percent below the 2012 crop. During the previous 20 years, the August upland cotton production forecast was above the final estimate 11 times and below it 9 times. Past differences between the August forecast and the final upland production estimate indicate that chances are two out of three for the 2013 crop to range between 11.3 and 13.6 million bales.
Compared with the 2012 crop, upland production is expected to decline in each of the Cotton Belt regions. Based on the August estimates, the Southeast is expected to harvest 4.5 million bales in 2013. Area, abandonment, and yield are all near the 5-year average for the region. If realized, the Southeast will be the largest producing region for the third consecutive season, a first in at least a century.
