The US will end 2013 with projected coal exports of 118 million st, down 6.3% from record exports of 126 million st in 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration's final Short Term Energy Outlook of the year.
The report, released Tuesday, said continued economic weakness in Europe, slowing Asian demand growth, increasing coal output from other coal-exporting countries and falling international prices are expected to keep US export demand in 2014 to 107 million st.
Domestically, the EIA said despite the retirement of 3.8 GW of coal-fired generating capacity through the first 10 months of 2013, it expects power generation from coal plants will grow by roughly 5% compared with last year, as plant operators increased their use of existing capacity in response to higher costs of generating electricity from natural gas.
The agency said the share of US electricity generated by coal is expected to end 2013 at 39.3%, up from 37.4% in 2012 but down from its five-year high of 44.8% in 2010. The EIA predicts coal generation to reach 39.9% in 2014.
The share of US electricity generated by natural gas is projected to end 2013 at 27.5%, down from its all-time high of 30.3% in 2012. Natural gas generation in 2014 is projected to total 27.2%.
The report expects the nominal average coal price to the electric power industry will drop to $2.35/MMBtu in 2013, down from $2.40/MMBtu in 2012. The agency expects the nominal price to total $2.39/MMBtu in 2014.
Natural gas prices are expected to finish 2013 averaging $3.69/MMBtu, up 34.2% from an annual average of $2.75/MMBtu in 2012. The agency expects the average price of natural gas to rise to $3.78/MMBtu in 2014.
Coal production is projected to total 1,008 million st in 2013, down 0.8% from 2012 production of 1,016 million st. Coal production is forecast to grow 2.5% in 2014 to 1,033 million st as inventories stabilize and consumption increases, said the report.
Coal consumption in 2013 is expected to total 928 million st, up 4.4% from 2012 due to higher natural gas prices. Projected 2014 consumption totals 948 million st in 2014.
The increase in production and consumption come despite a relatively flat electricity market. The report notes estimated electricity sales to the residential and commercial sectors grew 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, in 2013, while electricity sales to the industrial sector fell by an estimated 2.3%.
The report said total US electricity generation in 2013 will likely be 0.2% higher than 2012, and that 2014 generation will grow by 0.4%
