The world refined copper market balance for November 2013 showed an apparent production deficit of 129,000 mt, mainly due to record-high Chinese apparent demand, according to preliminary data issued last Friday by the International Copper Study Group.
The ICSG's previous monthly bulletin put the deficit for October 2013 at 19,000 mt.
When making seasonal adjustments for world refined production and usage, November showed a production deficit of 108,000 mt, the ICSG said, adding that the refined copper balance for the first 11 months of 2013, including revisions to data previously presented, indicates a production deficit of 375,000 mt (a seasonally adjusted deficit of 337,000 mt).
This compares with a production deficit of 576,000 mt (a seasonally adjusted deficit of 490,000 mt) in the same period of 2012.
In the first 11 months of 2013 world apparent usage is estimated to have increased by 3.5% (654,000 mt) compared with the same period of 2012.
"Chinese apparent demand in the first 11 months increased by 6.5% from that in the same period of 2012: a decline in net imports of refined copper of 290,000 mt (that occurred mainly in the first half of the year) was more than offset by an increase in refined production of around 650,000 mt," the ICSG said.
Actual demand in China during the first 11 months of 2013 may have exceeded apparent demand as the lower import level in the first half of 2013 was accompanied by a decline in unreported inventories held in bonded warehouses in China, the group suggested, adding: "Withdrawn stocks may have been all or partially directed to domestic industrial use."
BONDED STOCKS
Chinese bonded warehouse stocks declined by an estimated 299,000 mt in the first 11 months of 2013 compared to an increase of 536,000 mt in the same period of 2012, the ICSG said, adding that in the first 11 months of 2013, the refined copper balance adjusted for Chinese bonded stock changes indicates a deficit of 674,000 mt compared to a deficit of 40,000 mt in the same period of 2012.
Excluding China, year-on-year world usage increased by 1.3%, with growth in the US, the Persian Gulf countries, Brazil and Russia offsetting declines in Japan, South Korea and the European Union. On a regional basis, usage is estimated to have increased by around 4.5% in Asia, 1% in Asia ex-China, 2% in Africa, 4% in the Americas, and 0.5% in Europe and to have declined by around 16% in Oceania.
World refined production is estimated to have increased by around 4.7% (856,000 mt) in the first 11 months of 2013 compared with refined production in the same period of 2012, with primary production up by around 4.5% (674,000 mt), and secondary production up by 5.6% (182,000 mt).
"The main contributor to growth was China, where production increased by 12% (649,000 mt). Production also increased in Brazil (46%), the Democratic Republic of Congo (40%), and Zambia (11%)," the ICSG said.
But due to smelter maintenance and other temporary shutdowns, refined production declined by 5% in Chile, the world's second-largest refined copper producer, 13% in India, 4% in Japan, and 4% in Scandinavia.
On a regional basis, refined production is estimated to have increased in Africa (24%), Asia (7%), Oceania (1%), and the Americas (1.5%) and to have declined in Europe (1.5%).
The average world refinery capacity utilization rate for the first 11 months of 2013 declined slightly to 78.4% from 78.9% for the same period in the previous year.
MINE PRODUCTION
World mine production is estimated to have increased by 8% (1.2 million mt) in the first 11 months of 2013 compared with the same period of 2012, mainly owing to a recovery in production levels from constrained output in early 2012, but also to the ramp-up of new mine capacity.
Concentrate production increased by 9.6% (1.1 million mt) and solvent extraction-electrowinning by 3.2% (108,000 mt).
Mine production increased by 6.8% in Chile (332,000 mt), the world's leading producer, and accounted for 32% of world mine production, the ICSG said, adding that production also increased in Peru (6%), the US (6%), Indonesia (25%), Mongolia (55%), the Democratic Republic of Congo (50%) and Zambia (9%). These seven countries combined contributed an additional 930,000 mt of copper mine supply.
On a regional basis, production rose by around 27% in Africa, 6% in the Americas, 10% in Asia, 2.5% in Europe, and 5% in Oceania.
The average world mine capacity utilization rate for the first 11 months of 2013 increased to around 85% from around 82% in the same period of 2012.
