FTR's Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) for July jumped 30 percent from June, a healthy sign, but not one that points to any major positive changes on the horizon.
"The jump reflects the indexes forward look at an expected pricing uptick for truckers this fall as capacity tightens with regulatory effects and decent freight demand," FTR said.
FTR said they expect a modest peak in freight growth this fall before demand returns to the slow growth trend experienced in 2012 and early 2013.
In regards to the recent introduction of the new Hours-of-Service rules, there's very little hard evidence that they are having an impact, "but anecdotal accounts and very early data are starting to show some potential impacts," said Jonathan Starks, director of transportation analysis for FTR.
"Unfortunately, freight demand has remained lackluster with very little movement up or down outside of normal seasonal activity," Starks noted. "There is potential for a decent fall peak shipping season as the ISM manufacturing index is strong and inventories remain relatively lean, but the continued slog of the overall economy makes it unlikely that we'll get the significant push in consumer activity that is needed to really start moving the needle on capacity constraints and upward rate activity.
"Should any decent economic growth occur, it should quickly show up in truck activity and tighten a market that has very little spare capacity. The potential for an extremely tight truck market remains but is dependent on those external factors."
