The overall PV market price in the first quarter of 2015 is expected to remain constant until the end of the Lunar New Year. Afterwards, shipment demand will decrease and pricing will drop. The beginning of the holiday season in China meets the end of the holiday season in the US and Europe, and this means that there is a reduction of working hours in China happening at the same time with a return of purchase orders from the US and Europe. Also, market demand is expected to grow as domestic demand in China picks up and Japan firms in the downstream segment are stocking up materials before the end of their fiscal year.
According to EnergyTrend, China polysilicon in the short term will be sustained as China is ending the processing trade of polysilicon from the US and Korea. However, price hikes will not occur soon since China imported a vast quantity of polysilicon in 2014. It will take at least one to two months to exhaust China's stock. Even with the new production in the coming quarters, the chance of a material price increase depends on favorable policy changes and depletion of inventory. With all factors considered, EnergyTrend predicts that the spot price for polysilicon will remain the same until the end of the Lunar New Year, with a minor drop afterwards and spot price is expected to stay between US$18-20/kg.
With polysilicon supply being plentiful and high-efficiency multi-Si wafers being the chief demand of downstream firms, the key influence behind the price of wafers in the first quarter of 2015 will be technical capabilities. First-tier manufacturers will maintain their prices either by launching a newer generation of multi-Si wafers or increases the efficiency of existing models to response to the market trends. Those manufacturers that can provide higher efficiency's products will be able to keep their prices, those that cannot will have to slash their prices to increase sales. EnergyTrend said it anticipates that overall pricing will remain stable, fluctuating between US$0.88-0.90/pc.
The uncertainty caused by the US Department of Commerce's recent decision on the 2014 US anti-dumping and countervailing case, means the China is still the largest market for Taiwan solar cell manufacturers, followed by Europe and Japan. Hence, the price depression of Taiwan solar cells will continue. EnergyTrend added it projects that Taiwan solar cells, including high-efficiency multi-Si cells, will face a gradual price drop, with average pricing between US$0.32-0.325/W. Any significant price fluctuations will be dependent on the final outcome of the 2014 US anti-dumping and countervailing investigations.
Due to the US Department of Commerce's favorable administrative review of 2012 anti-dumping and countervailing case, solar cell prices will also remain flat and constant for the first-tier manufacturers in China as they will be receiving most of the orders. Anticipate a slight and gradual price decrease after the Lunar New Year because of weakening demand. The US policy is less effective against the fragmented downstream market in demand of high-efficiency multi-Si solar cells, the firm said.
The orders for solar modules will concentrate on the first-tier manufacturers in China, filling their production capacities. This again is because of the decision of the US Department of Commerce that allows China solar cell and module makers to export at a lower rate. The impact of foreign modules on the US market is significant as the unit price will suffer a drop greater than 5%. Nonetheless, other regions will not be affected and they will maintain their price stability.
The module prices for the second-tier, OEM manufacturers, in contrast, are expected to lower as orders are going to major, first-tier brand manufacturers. EnergyTrend noted it anticipates a trend in greater price differentiation between first-tier and second-tier solar modules in the future.
