OPEC crude production continued its downward trend in November as a new series of output disruptions took hold in Libya and lower volumes from other member countries outpaced an increase of 192,000 b/d in Iraq, monthly estimates from the oil producer group showed Tuesday
OPEC, which uses secondary sources to monitor its output, said production from all 12 members fell to 29.633 million b/d in November from 29.827 million b/d in October, a drop of 194,000 b/d.
The estimates showed Libyan output falling to 371,000 b/d in November from 512,000 b/d in October. Nigerian production fell to 1.821 million b/d from 1.925 million b/d. Saudi Arabia scaled back output to 9.626 million b/d in November from 9.714 million b/d in October and 10.037 million b/d in September. Algeria, Kuwait and the UAE had smaller falls.
Iraqi production climbed to 3.107 million b/d in November from 2.915 million b/d in October.
OPEC also publishes a table of output figures submitted directly by member countries. These can differ markedly from the estimates from secondary sources. Iran, for example, told OPEC it had pumped an average 3.3 million b/d in November, some 600,000 b/d more than the secondary source figure of 2.716 million b/d.
Venezuela's direct submission of 2.854 million b/d was 490,000 b/d higher than the 2.364 million b/d derived from secondary sources.
Libya's direct submission of 226,000 b/d was considerably below the secondary source estimate, as was Nigeria's -- 1.672 million b/d compared with 1.821 million b/d.
Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped an average 9.746 million b/d, little changed from the 9.753 million b/d it submitted for October but 120,000 b/d higher than the secondary source estimate.
OPEC has estimated average demand for its crude next year, plus movements in and out of stocks, at 29.57 million b/d, unchanged from its previous monthly report. But it expected the call on OPEC to fall from 30.4 million b/d in the fourth quarter of this year to 29.16 million b/d in the first quarter of 2014.
Despite the projections of lower demand for their crude next year, OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna last week said they would maintain the current 30 million b/d overall output ceiling until their next meeting in June, in the interest of maintaining equilibrium in world oil markets.
However, the monthly report said: "Member countries re-confirmed their readiness to promptly respond to unforeseen developments that could have an adverse impact on an orderly and balanced oil market."
Potential developments that could alter OPEC's view of the market balance include Libyan output recovering to around 1.4-1.5 million b/d and a full lifting of sanctions on Iran.
There is scepticism about a full recovery in Libyan output given the continuing unrest in the country.
In the case of Iran, analysts do not expect any significant increase in production and exports until at least the second half of next year.
The clock has yet to start ticking officially on last month's ground-breaking six-month agreement that, in return for concessions on the nuclear program, will give Iran some sanctions relief but keep core oil and banking sanctions in place while negotiators work toward a comprehensive agreement that would see sanctions lifted.
