Projected 2013/14 Supplies Raised 10 Million Bushels This Month
Projected 2013/14 supplies are raised 10 million bushels this month to 3,008 million bushels. Production and carryin stocks are unchanged, but imports are raised to 10 million bushels to 160 million bushels with expected higher hard red spring (HRS) and soft red winter (SRW) imports from Canada, up 5 million bushels each.
Projected 2013/14 Supplies Down From 2012/13
Total U.S. wheat supply for 2013/14 is down 123 million bushels from 2012/13 to 3,008 million bushels. Supplies of hard red winter (HRW) and durum are down year to year, while supplies are up for the other classes. HRW supplies decreased the most, as smaller production and imports more than offset higher beginning stocks. HRW production is down from 2012 due partially to the smaller planted area for the 2013 crop, and both a higher abandonment rate and a lower yield because of severe drought and spring freeze damage. SRW supplies were up the most year to year as higher production and imports more than offset lower beginning stocks. SRW production is higher than 2012 because of larger harvested area and higher yield.
Projected Total 2013/14 Utilization Is Unchanged This Month
Projected 2013/14 total U.S. wheat use is unchanged from November. Exports, at 1,100 million bushels, are unchanged in total, but HRS exports are lowered 5 million bushels while SRW exports are raised by 5 million bushels. The class changes are based on export pace to date.
Projected 2013/14 Use Is Up Slightly From 2012/13
Projected total use for 2013/14 is 2,433 million bushels, up 19 million bushels from 2012/13. Domestic use is expected to be down 73 million bushels from 2012/13 while exports are projected up 93 million bushels. Domestic use is down because feed and residual use is expected to fall 78 million bushels from 2012/13 to 310 million bushels. While feed use appears to have been high during the summer quarter of 2013/14, such use is expected to decrease with large supplies of lower priced corn available for feeding since the fall corn harvest. Total food use is expected higher with population growth and expected lower flour extraction than in 2012/13.
Projected 2013/14 Ending Stocks Up From November, Down From 2012/13
The projected 2013/14 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels from November to 575 million bushels because of the raised imports of HRW and SRW. Total ending stocks for 2013/14 are expected to decrease by 20 percent from 2012/13. Stocks of HRW, SRW, and white are expected down 44 percent, 28 percent, and 7 percent, respectively. Stocks of durum and HRS are expected up 34 percent and 23 percent, respectively.
