The US will export 101 million st of coal this year and 96 million st in 2015, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday, down from March projections of 103 million st and 99 million mt, respectively.
Continued economic weakness in Europe, slowing Asian demand growth and falling international prices for the expected decline, the EIA said in its April Short-Term Energy Outlook.
EIA in February projected 2014 and 2015 exports of 106 million st and 105 million st, respectively.
The EIA projects 2014 US coal production of 1.024 billion st and 2015 production of 1.022 billion st, based on higher consumption. Appalachian production is projected to decline 2.7%, while Western production is expected to increase by 0.9%, the agency said.
Coal consumption in the US is expected to increase to 964 million st in 2014, up 4.2% from 925 million st in 2013, EIA said. It attributed the increase to higher electricity demand and higher natural gas prices when compared with 2012.
In 2015, coal consumption is expected to dip to 940.9 million st due to coal plant retirements in response to the federal Mercury and Air Toxics Standards rule.
Coal-fired power is projected to make up 40.3% of US electricity generation in 2014, which is up from 39.1% in 2013. In 2015, coal-fired generation is expected to dip again to 39.1% of total US electricity generation.
Natural gas-fired generation is projected to dip to 26.5% this year, from 27.4% in 2013. The percentage climbs to 27.4% in 2015, according to the agency.
The EIA projects the average annual delivered price of coal at $2.35/MMBtu in 2014 and $2.36/MMBtu in 2015, compared with $2.35/MMBtu in 2013.
Henry Hub natural gas futures are projected to average $4.44/MMBtu in 2014 and $4.11/MMBtu in 2015, up from $3.73/MMBtu in 2013.
