The latest issue of the annual PCI Fibres Red Book (World Synthetic Fibres Supply/Demand Report 2012) shows global fibres demand to have reached 82.1 million tons in 2012, with estimates at the half-year point putting the figure at 85.8 million tons for 2013. This new report also shows demand in 2010 to have been at 76.3 million tons and in 2011 at 78.9 million.
This annual survey of demand covers wool, cotton and the manufactured fibres in terms both of the final consumer and textile mill consumption. All applications are included for the so-called soft fibres: apparel, household and technical; hard fibres such as jute and polypropylene tape being excluded.
The analysis considers the world as 13 regions and also details capacity and production for the main synthetics, acrylic, nylon and polyester, across some 70 countries. The data behind the report runs from 1990, but the analysis is based on figures back to 1960. Final demand and textile mill consumption are also forecast through to 2030.
Following some flattening in 2001, global fibres demand since then has been growing year by year at an average of 4%, 2012 coming out exactly at this rate. Textile mill consumption in wool declined however by 2.5% in 2012, to 1.06 million tons, and in cotton by 2.2%, to 22.9 million.
All the growth came in the manufactured fibres, overall by 6.8% to reach 58.2 million tons. Among these acrylic, nylon staple and nylon carpet yarn (BCF) all declined; with the most growth to be seen in cellulosic staple, up 19%, and in synthetic textile filament, up both as nylon and as polyester by nearly 9.5%.
China remains the dominant market both as final consumer, with 30% of global demand, and as textile processor, with 53%. In wool it has 33% of global mill consumption; in cotton 35%; and in manufactured fibres 61%.
But there are concerns that China’s consumer market for fibres products, if considered on an “apparent” basis as the net of production and exports, might be over-heating. Per capita demand in China for 2012 is put at 18.4 kg versus a global average of 11.7 kg, with South Korea at 21.3 kg, Taiwan at 21.1 kg and Japan at 21.0 kg.
Can China as a whole overtake these markets in the near future, or are its figures, particularly for manufactured fibres, inflated by over-investment? And if any correction is to take place, will this be by a reduction in Chinese fibres production, which could throw the global petrochemicals industry out of balance, or by an increase in exports, which could affect textile activity throughout the developing world, especially in South-East Asia.
These concerns are all reviewed in this new report, but in the meantime there is still the influence of monetary stimulation, and the rate of investment in new fibres and textiles capacity remains high, particularly in China. Global fibres demand for 2013 is set to increase by as much as 4.5%, and such growth rates are not expected to relax until 2015, by which time the pattern of demand in China will be clearer and the influence of worldwide monetary stimulation most likely reduced.
