In August, U.S. cotton demand for 2013/ 14 was reduced to 14.1 million bales, nearly 2.5 million bales below last season and the lowest since 1988/89, as supply constraints are expected to limit U.S. exports.
While exports continue to account for the bulk of demand, U.S. shipments are forecast at 10.6 million bales in 2013/14. A reduction in import demand by China and increased competition for a smaller world trade is expected to keep U.S. exports at their lowest level since 2000/01.
The projected U.S. share of global trade of 28 percent is similar to last season but one of the lowest during the previous decade. With forecasts of U.S. cotton demand exceeding production for the first time in three seasons, ending stocks are projected to decrease 1 million bales this season to 2.8 million bales, the lowest since 2010/11.
Similarly, the stocks-to-use ratio of 20 percent is the lowest in three years. As of August, the 2013/14 upland farm price is forecast to range between 72 and 88 cents per pound. The midpoint of 80 cents per pound is 8 cents above 2012/13’s estimate of 72 cents per pound and 8 cents below 2011/12’s 88 cents per pound.
