The forecasts for total red meat and poultry production for both 2013 and 2014 are lowered from December. For 2013, beef production is raised, but pork, broiler, and turkey production are reduced. The forecast for 2014 is reduced as lower pork and turkey production more than offset an increased beef production forecast. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on December 27, indicated that the September-November pig crop was fractionally below a year earlier which will constrain supplies of slaughter hogs in early 2014. Although producers intend to farrow more sows in the first half of 2014, the impacts of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) will likely slow growth in pigs per litter and keep supplies of market hogs relatively tight during 2014. Beef production is raised for 2014 as higher-than-expected lacements in the later part of 2013 and expected availability of winter pasture support increased cattle marketings and slaughter during the year. No change is made to 2014 broiler production. Egg production is reduced slightly for 2013 and 2014.
Beef imports are unchanged for 2013, but are raised slightly for 2014. Beef exports are raised for both 2013 and 2014 as the pace of exports over the past several months has been strong. Pork imports and exports for both 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month. The 2013 broiler export forecast is raised slightly based on exports to date, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Turkey exports for 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month.
Animal product prices for 2013 are adjusted based on December data. For 2014, the cattle price forecast is raised from last month as demand for fed cattle remains strong. Hog prices are raised as the production forecast is lowered. Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised from last month. Demand for broiler meat is firm, supported by tight supplies of beef. Turkey prices are expected to be supported by lower forecast production in early 2014. Egg prices are forecast higher, reflecting current price strength.
The 2013 milk production estimate is reduced from last month, based on recent milk production data. The forecast for 2014 is raised as improving returns are expected to support a more rapid increase in output per cow. Fat basis imports are reduced for 2013 and 2014 on lower expected imports of butterfat. On a skim-solids basis, imports are reduced slightly for 2013 but are unchanged for 2014. Fat basis exports are raised for both 2013 and 2014 on relatively strong demand for cheese and other products. Skim-solids exports are reduced slightly for 2013 as NDM exports lagged in November. However, exports are expected to strengthen in 2014 and the skim solids export forecast is raised.
Dairy product and milk prices for 2013 are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2014, cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are raised as export and domestic demand are expected to strengthen, but the forecast for dry whey is unchanged. The Class III price is raised due to the higher cheese prices and the Class IV price forecast reflects higher butter and NDM prices. The all milk price is forecast at $20.60 to $21.40 per cwt for 2014.
