With a new government in power in India following last month's elections, Chinese iron ore importers are waiting to see if any policy changes will be forthcoming that could lead to a hike in their imports.
India was China's third-largest supplier of iron ore before the imposition of a 30% export tax in December 2011. India exported 100 million mt/year of iron ore prior to the December 30, 2011 ban, but in 2013, exports slumped to about 14 million mt.
Industry sources in India said, however, that there was little likelihood of iron ore exports to China rising in the near term despite an increase in inquiries from Chinese mills.
Steel market sources in China view Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a reformer and hope for export policy changes on iron ore as part of likely reforms to boost India's slowing economy. But a Mumbai-based source from a leading Indian steel mill said Wednesday that any change in policy on iron ore exports was unlikely.
"We believe that the Indian government will want to protect our domestic interests first before considering any alternative," he said. "After all, this is a national asset and we should use it internally for growth."
A New Delhi-based trader said that it was too early to discuss the possibility of iron ore exports. A clearer picture would emerge once "budget announcements are made in the first week of July," he added.
"Returning to the original levels of 90 million mt/year of exports may be a huge feat, reaching 30 million mt would be a more reasonable estimate," a source at a management consultancy said.
Meanwhile, following a fall in global iron ore prices, Indian mills have resumed their purchase of seaborne cargoes. Platts assessed the 62% Fe IODEX at $95/dry mt CFR North China on Wednesday.
