Solar revenue growth in 2H12 stimulated by US and Asia Pacific pipelines,says Solarbuzz Press release,May 15;Jackie Chang,DIGITIMES[Tuesday 15 May 2012]Solar demand during second-half 2012 will see increasing contributions from emerging markets in North America and the Asia Pacific,with 60%of solar demand coming from these non-European regions according to Solarbuzz.
This represents an important change for the solar industry,indicative of longer-term trends in which the share of global solar demand stimulated by countries in Europe will decline.While 50%of global demand during second-half 2011 came from Germany and Italy,54%of demand in the final quarter of 2012 is forecast to come from China,India,Japan and the US.
According to Wolfgang Schlichting,research director for downstream solar markets at Solarbuzz,"The expansion in global solar end-markets during second-half 2012 requires new sales and marketing approaches to exploit the significant revenue opportunities in North America and Asia Pacific.Understanding the changing solar landscape across utility,ground-mount and leasing projects forces a shift in corporate strategies to more diversified downstream business operations."
Growth in utility,ground-mount and leasing projects
During second-half 2012,utility-scale projects will accelerate solar growth across North America and Asia Pacific,representing 57%of demand in those regions.To realize projects on-time and within budget,the role of project developers will become increasingly important,especially in accessing finance and coordinating necessary permits and EPC(engineering,procurement,and construction)providers.
Downstream companies that can provide monitoring,performance guarantees or project maintenance to ensure the quality of electricity delivered will also benefit from this segment growth.
Large ground-mount projects(>5 MW in capacity)across China and India are forecast to dominate Asia Pacific demand during second-half 2012.Over 2.2GW are expected to be completed in fourth-quarter 2012,ahead of year-end policy expiration dates.Japan was previously comprised of many small local solar installers serving the residential segment,but the introduction of the new feed-in-tariff(FIT)in July provides opportunities for system integrators and project developers who can design/engineer,construct,and/or finance large solar systems.
Overseas companies that can bring cost-competitive products or services to large-scale systems will also benefit.Solar demand in Japan during second-half 2012 is forecast to exceed 1.1GW,representing 74%growth compared to second-half 2011.
The expiration of the federal cash grant is a big change to the US market in 2012.First-quarter 2012 was still driven by projects that met the qualifications for the grant at the end of 2011.The most notable effect of the cash grant on downstream channels was the rise in residential solar leasing.Although the impact of the cash grant will decline,more than 60%of 2012 US demand will occur during second-half 2012,driven by utility-scale projects towards RPS(renewable portfolios standard)compliance in California and other states,as well as residential lease expansions to the east coast.
European opportunities should not be discounted
In 2012,major European markets continue to be impacted by severe tightening of incentive policies and financing restrictions.While Germany was impacted by drastic funding cuts in April,Italy is waiting for a new funding scheme(Conto Energia V)that could dramatically restrict the funding conditions in second-half 2012.However,the German and Italian markets are likely to benefit strongly from advancement effects and transition phases.
The decline of the French market in second-half 2012 will reflect funding restrictions implemented in 2011.Other markets that will see declines include Spain,Belgium and Bulgaria.Based on current incentive policies,the fastest growing smaller markets over the next 1-2 years will be Austria,Bulgaria,Czech Republic,Israel,Romania,Serbia and Slovakia.Also,the European market is starting to see more project development activity that does not depend on premium incentives or public funding.
Key European market segment changes from first-to second-quarter 2012 include a rise in ground-mount share from 28%to 33%,residential share rising from 19%to 22%,and building-mount share declining from 53%to 44%.However,second-half 2012 will be characterized by declines in the ground-mount sector due to the shift in policy focus,especially across more mature markets.
