Trade barriers bad for solar industry:Q&A with Phoenix Solar president and CEO Murray Cameron Jackie Chang,DIGITIMES,Taipei[Friday 12 October 2012]The US government announced the final verdict of the anti-dumpig and anti-subsidy investigation against China-based solar firms on October 10,2012.At PV Taiwan 2012,Digitimes had the chance to sit down with Murray Cameron,president and CEO of Phoenix Solar,to discuss demand in Europe and the implications of the rising trade barriers.
Q:What is your view on demand in Europe in second-half 2012 and 2013?Has demand been affected by the debt crisis in Europe?
A:Demand in Europe has certainly been cooling down due to regulatory framework changes such as incentive cuts in the second half of the year.We definitely see that in Germany,as the country had a healthy start in the beginning of the year with close to 4GW of installations in first-half 2012.In 2010-2011,Germany had total installations around 7GW per year,this is unlikely to happen this year.Also,changes in regulatory framework have been happening in countries such as France,Spain,and Italy.However,demand has not been affected by the economic downturn,as in Germany,solar PV installation projects are still a very attractive investment.
Q:Will there be another feed-in-tariff(FIT)cut in Germany in November?
A:Germany has regular cuts due to the new scheme and the industry just has to get used to having cuts on a regular basis.As we move into the fourth quarter,which we are already in,we will see slight cuts.In the past,there used to be demand surge before the cuts,but not this time.
Q:Which emerging market do you believe has the most potential?
A:There are a number of interesting markets,such as Asia.Phoenix Solar has been discovering opportunities in Asia.Also,now is a good time to enter the Japan market because the market used to be only for residential-type of systems,but due to policy changes,large-size power plants are gaining popularity.Also,I was talking to people here at PV Taiwan 2012,some says China is likely to achieve installation of 6GW in 2013.South and Southeast Asia countries such as Thailand and India are certainly growing.However,India is a complicated market.The other region I believe is quite interesting is North America.However,there will not be a surge in growth but we will likely see growth in small but sustainable steps.One factor that might cause fluctuation in the market in North America is the upcoming presidential election as renewable energy has been one of the hot topics.Although I do not think the outcome of the election will have much impact on the solar market.US installations in 2012 should be around 3GW.
Q:What is Phoenix Solar's 2012 and 2013 projected total installations?
A:We are still working hard for the fourth quarter and the jury is still out.We have been building some large-size projects such as a project of 25MW in Bulgaria and 10MW in Tennessee,US.We have been expanding quite dramatically and building up our pipeline for 2013.At the end of this year,we will see the firm building some of the largest projects in the history of Phoenix Solar.We've been in the US for a couple of years now and our market share in the US has been growing.The 10MW solar PV project in Tennessee is for Volkswagen and it is interesting because Volkswagen wants to obtain the LEED(Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design)Platinum status.And in order to do that,at least 12%of power generated in the location needs to be from renewable energy sources such as solar.Volkswagen will be the first car maker to achieve this status.
Q:What is your view on the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations in US and EU?
A:I have a very clear beacon of that which is in line with the position of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association(EPIA),which I sit on the board of.I believe trade barriers are not helpful for the industry in the long term and for the end customer.Today,we have price of solar electricity at the lowest level,which is competitive in many areas with conventional power at the retail level.We believe,speaking for myself and EPIA,in open and accessible markets.We are against anti-dumping tariffs unless there are very clear issues.I do not believe there is a real issue in the solar electricity market.If the investigation happened five years ago in North America and Europe,the price of solar products today would be more than double.The trade barriers are not helpful for an industry that has become a major player in the world energy scenario.The market should be open and should not have any restrictions.
At our part of business,we have been less affected by the anti-dumping investigations in the US as we are not manufacturers.However,the tariff does limit our accessibility to products,based on regions.As a buyer,we want access to quality products with competitive prices.
The winner of the anti-dumping issues is Taiwan in the short term.China-based solar firms have been affected by the high tariff and one of the ways to bypass this is to issue solar cell orders to Taiwan.But procuring solar cells from Taiwan means higher cost and the market is bound to contract,which is not good for anybody.
Q:Purpose of the trip to Taiwan?
A:We are assessing opportunities.Phoenix Solar wants to expand its footprint globally and potentially teaming up with the local firms.
Q:What advices can you give to Taiwan's solar supply chain?
A:Taiwan has a very good solar supply chain.This is one of the reasons for this third visit to Taiwan,which is to see the progress of the industry.I believe that maintaining a high-level under extremely-challenging price-cutting environment is crucial.And for end users that are buying the products,the products should be able to provide electricity for the next 20 years.Quality is the top of the list.
Q:Should Taiwan's solar supply chain move focus to downstream module or system segments?
A:I believe for the long term,system integration is absolutely crucial.As a system integrator,we are the one delivering the end product and maintenance to customers.As more markets have been opening up,we understand that system integration will become a very localized industry.You have people on the ground,locally,and people who understand the regulation of the country or region.Even in Germany,there are more jobs downstream than upstream.Lots of people have been talking about losing jobs to other manufacturers,but most jobs are in downstream segments such as system integration.Jobs will be created in the emerging markets in the system integration and project development area.Jobs will come because of increasing need for installations and maintenance.
Q:Do you see a trend of closer cooperation between China-and Taiwan-based solar firms?
A:Yes,I do see that trend for the mid-term.It is hard to say anything long-term for the solar industry now.It is interesting to see China-based solar firms exhibiting in PV Taiwan 2012,such as GCL-Poly.
Murray Cameron,president and CEO of Phoenix Solar
Photo:Shihmin Fu,Digitimes,October 2012
