Cathay Financial Holdings yesterday forecast Taiwan’s gross domestic product (GDP) to rise 3.88% year on year in 2013 while Chung-Hua Institute for Economic Research projected the growth rate at 3.6%, both higher than the estimated 3.15% issued by the government.
Cathay Financial, which did the forecast research in cooperation with a research institute of the National Taiwan University (NTU), pointed out that export growth will be the primary driver of Taiwan’s economic growth in 2013 while government policies will play a major role in driving up the island’s domestic market.
The financial holdings company even estimated the island’s 2013 GDP to increase 4.15% as the highest point.
The company and NTU felt that the United States “fiscal cliff”, European debt crisis and economic slowdown of mainland China will become relived issues in 2013, providing a boost to global market. To boost the domestic market, the government, the two organizations noted, needs to come up with policies that will inspire the repatriations of overseas Taiwanese enterprises and lower unemployment rate.
Cathay Financial and the NTU institute pointed out that their indexes measuring the island’s stock market performance and stock investor willingness over the past six months have considerably recovered.
Chung-Hua’s researchers pointed out that the darkest days for Taiwan’s economy have gone since September. The researchers estimated global economy will slowly recover in 2013 and the island’s economy will climb quarter after quarter in GDP, with 3.06% estimated for Q1, 3.72% for Q2, 3.77% for Q3 and 3.81% for Q4.
