"THE toy industry is dead."
That's the sort of statement that catches your attention, but I can't claim the credit for it.
It was written by Richard Gottlieb, a highly respected toy industry analyst over in the States. Gottlieb's theory is that the toy industry, as we know it, has changed irrevocably since the explosion of digital entertainment.
"Let me assure you," he writes, "that if you believe you are in the toy industry you are going to get steamrolled by any company that recognises that the battles are no longer for shelf space in a toy department but for time and mindshare in an eight year-old's brain."
I love articles like this, because they make you take a moment to think, to reconsider things that perhaps you have been taking for granted for too long.
They can make you realise that an industry has subtly shifted without you realising, rather like an actor on stage who doesn't notice that the scenery has changed.
But you don't, of course, have to accept everything in such an article, and I happen to believe that Richard is wrong on this occasion.
The toy industry isn't dead, it just has some very powerful competition, and that isn't some new, 21st century development.
Toys have always had competition. Simply going outside to play has always been an option, while we've had children's books for hundreds of years, and television was a powerful adversary even before we plugged those first games consoles into them and sat, slack-jawed, as we batted a tiny white dot around the screen.
In short, toys have never been "the only game in town", as Gottlieb claims.
There is undoubtedly more choice now when it comes to play, but while some products will blur the lines between the physical and the digital worlds (Skylanders is the obvious example, along with any number of accessory-based apps), others will stay firmly in their respective camps.
If you try to tell me that there will be no market in a decade's time for a simple teddy bear, or a doll, or a toy train, unless they have an accompanying app, I will tell you that you are crazy.
Gottlieb's suggestion that we should now be thinking about an overall 'play industry' is certainly interesting, but that doesn't mean every company has to join the digital revolution or risk going the way of the dinosaurs. The toy industry is still very much alive and kicking.
