In response to developments in China's support policy, the current USDA estimate for 2012/13 is now dramatically different from the initial forecast published in May 2012.
Consumption estimates for 2011/12 were lowered, resulting in larger carry-out stocks. Despite those larger stocks, higher production and lower consumption, import demand in 2012/13 has been stronger than expected, because sales from the reserves to the domestic market have been far below announced targets.
These factors led to a significant adjustment to China's current year ending stocks, which are now nearly 80 percent higher than the initial forecast. In contrast, ending stocks in other countries are significantly tighter because of expanded Chinese import demand, for both raw cotton and yarn, and greater consumption in the rest of the world.
USDA's forecast was frequently adjusted to reflect new developments in China's support policy which is still a work in progress. As a result, USDA's 2013/14 forecast may also require ongoing adjustments to reflect an evolving policy situation.
Overview
For 2013/14, the global outlook shows higher ending stocks as production is raised and consumption is lowered. Trade is virtually unchanged. U.S. exports are reduced. The season average U.S. farm price range is projected at 70 to 90 cents/pound. For 2012/13, U.S. exports are down on stronger competition from Australia.
Prices
The U.S. spot price and the A-Index continued to be supported by China's reserve policy.
2013/14 TRADE OUTLOOK
Major Exporters:
- India is up 100,000 bales to 7.2 million on a larger exportable supply.
- Hong Kong is raised 100,000 bales to 200,000 on greater transshipments.
Major Importers:
- Pakistan is down 300,000 bales to 2.7 million on a lower consumption forecast..
- India is up 200,000 bales to 1.2 million on delayed shipments from 2012/13.
- Russia is down 120,000 bales to 380,000 on lower use and rising yarn imports.
- Hong Kong is raised 100,000 bales to 300,000 on increased transshipments.
Trade Changes 2012/13
Major Exporters:
- United States is lowered 300,000 bales to 13.3 million on lower shipments in recent weeks.
- Australia is up 300,000 bales to 6.0 million on strong new crop shipments.
- Brazil is down 200,000 bales to 4.3 million on slow new crop availability.
- Hong Kong is raised 100,000 bales to 200,000 on larger transshipments.
Major Importers:
- Pakistan is down 500,000 bales to 2.2 million on weakening consumption.
- India is lowered 200,000 bales to 1.5 million as imports delayed into next season.
- Turkey is up 100,000 bales to 3.8 million strong end-of-year shipments.
- Hong Kong is raised 100,000 bales to 300,000 on greater transshipments.
- Vietnam is raised 150,000 bales to 2.45 million rising consumption.
