With fresh economic data for March revealing the impact of the stampede in demand before the consumption tax hike, private economists now estimate that the Japanese economy expanded at a brisk clip of 4.6% on the year during the first three months of 2014.
The Nikkei polled 12 economists after statistics released by Friday revealed March consumer spending was up 7.2% on the year in real terms — the largest margin of increase in 39 years — and that the job-openings-to-applicants ratio was a robust 1.07.
Should it be achieved, the 4.6% inflation-adjusted growth rate would be the highest since the July-September 2011 quarter, when the economy rebounded from a slump after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster. The Cabinet Office will release preliminary January-March gross domestic product figures on May 15.
The economists predict that growth will fall to negative 3.8% in the April-June quarter, before rebounding to 2.6% in the July-September quarter.
Growth during the first three months of 2014 was driven by individual consumption. Japanese rushed to snap up everything from food and home appliances to automobiles ahead of the 3-percentage-point rise in the consumption tax to 8%, which took effect April 1. Capital spending is also seen climbing.
