The 2014/15 U.S. cotton projections show higher production and ending stocks compared to last month. Projected abandonment in the Southwest has been reduced due to recent favorable rainfall, resulting in a production increase of 500,000 bales to 15.0 million. Overall U.S. abandonment is now projected at 21 percent, below the preceding 2 years, but above the long-run average, due to current subsoil moisture deficits in the Southwest. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month, resulting in ending stocks of 4.3 million bales. The forecast stocks-to-use ratio of 32 percent would be the highest in 6 years.
The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected to range from 60 to 80 cents per pound, down 3 cents on both ends of the range. At the midpoint of 70 cents, prices would fall 10 percent from 2013/14. This month's 2014/15 world projections include higher beginning and ending stocks, equivalent increases in production and consumption, and a decline in world trade. Beginning stocks are raised due mainly to a higher China import forecast for 2013/14 and higher 2013/14 production for India. For 2014/15, production is raised for the United States, while consumption is raised for India and Vietnam, but is lowered for Pakistan. World trade is reduced, as imports are lower for China and Pakistan, but higher for Vietnam. World stocks are raised nearly 1.1 million bales from last month.
