China's Non-manufacturing PMI Increased in September National Bureau of Statistics of China
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)
In September, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 55.4 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the previous month.
In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of service industry was 53.9 percent, up by 1.4 percentage points than that in the previous month. Of which, the indices of retail trade, water transport, post, accommodation, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, Internet, software and information technology services stayed above the threshold, and the total enterprise business grew rapidly; the indices of air transport, ecological protection, environmental control and management of public facilities, transport via road, resident services and repair were below the threshold, and the total enterprise business decreased. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 61.5 percent, up by 2.0 percentage points over the previous month, continued to stay above the threshold, and still positioned in the high level of the range.
New orders index continued to increase. The new orders index was 53.4 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points over the previous month, continued to stay above the threshold. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 52.8 percent, 2.9 percentage points higher over the previous month. Of which, the new orders indices of retail trade, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, transport via railway, Internet, software and information technology services, renting and leasing activities and business services were above the threshold, and the market demands increased obviously, while the new orders indices of ecological protection, environmental control and management of public facilities, air transport, resident services and repair, transport via road, restaurants were below the threshold, and the market demands decreased. The new orders index of construction industry was 55.7 percent, up by 0.6 percentage point over the previous month, and the market demands continued to increase.
Intermediate input price index went down slightly, reached 56.7 percent, down by 0.4 percentage point over last month, indicating that the intermediate input price during the process of production and operation of non-manufacturing enterprises continued to increase, but the growth slowed. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price index of service industry was 57.5 percent, slightly went up by 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, and the intermediate input price indices of all the sub industries stayed above the threshold for three consecutive months, of which, the indices of transport via road, air transport, restaurants, Internet, software and information technology services positioned in a high place which above 60 percent, and the increase of intermediate input costs of enterprises during operating was quite large. The intermediate input price index of construction industry was 53.5 percent, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points over the previous month, and stayed above the threshold for three consecutive months, indicating the operation costs of construction industry continued to increase, with a narrowed amount.
The subscription price index dropped back. This index was 50.6 percent, 0.6 percentage point lower over last month, stayed above the threshold for five consecutive months, which showing that the non-manufacturing subscription price kept increasing, with a narrowed amount. In view of different industries, the subscription price index of service industry was 50.6 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage point over the previous month. Of which, the subscription price indices of wholesale, retail trade, accommodation, transport via railway, renting and leasing activities and business services were above the threshold, that of resident services and repair, loading, unloading and portage, storage, air transport, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, transport via road were below the threshold. The subscription price index of construction industry was 50.7 percent, up by 0.5 percentage point over last month.
Business activities expectation index dropped from a high place. This index reached 60.1 percent, down by 2.8 percentage points over last month, but still placed highly in the range, which indicating that the non-manufacturing enterprises maintained optimistic about the operating expectation in next three months, and had full confidence in the development of the industry. In view of different industries, except for air transport, resident services and repair, the business activities expectation indices of other industries were above the threshold.
China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)
Unit: %
| Non-manufacturing PMI | New Orders Index | Intermediate Input Price Index | Subscription Price Index | Business Activities Expectation Index | |
| 2012-September | 53.7 | 51.8 | 57.5 | 51.3 | 60.9 |
| October | 55.5 | 51.6 | 58.1 | 50.5 | 63.4 |
| November | 55.6 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 48.4 | 64.6 |
| December | 56.1 | 54.3 | 53.8 | 50 | 64.6 |
| 2013-January | 56.2 | 53.7 | 58.2 | 50.9 | 61.4 |
| February | 54.5 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 51.1 | 62.7 |
| March | 55.6 | 52 | 55.3 | 50 | 62.4 |
| April | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 47.6 | 62.5 |
| May | 54.3 | 50.1 | 54.4 | 50.7 | 62.9 |
| June | 53.9 | 50.3 | 55 | 50.6 | 61.8 |
| July | 54.1 | 50.3 | 58.2 | 52.4 | 63.9 |
| August | 53.9 | 50.9 | 57.1 | 51.2 | 62.9 |
| September | 55.4 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 50.6 | 60.1 |
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, intermediate input price index, subscription price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.
2. Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 27 manufacturing industry categories in the "Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011), and was conducted in 1200 sampling enterprises of the non-manufacturing sector countrywide.
3. Survey Methods
Non-manufacturing purchasing managers' survey was conducted in PPS ( Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.
5. Seasonal Adjustment Note
The purchasing manager's survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. At present, time series of China's non-manufacturing PMI have met the technical requirements of the seasonally adjustment, and the sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data on seasonally adjusted will be released since March 2012.
