IMS Research forecasts 2013 to be another challenging year for PV inverter manufacturers, with flat revenue growth globally and a major shift away from traditional markets leading to a reshaping of the supplier base, according to the research institute. The top 10 inverter manufacturers are likely to suffer because of falling inverter prices and because new markets such as Japan, China, India and the US will prove difficult to penetrate and may not compensate for decreases in their core markets, Germany and Italy. Recent announcements of profit warnings, and bankruptcy filings by leading suppliers SMA and Satcon highlight the challenging conditions being experienced by all PV inverter manufacturers at present and this may not improve until 2014.
IMS Research forecasts a double-digit growth of solar installations with 35GW of installations predicted in 2013. However, inverter revenues will remain flat as prices are forecast to decline in a highly competitive market as manufacturers attempt to break into new geographic markets and gain market share. A major geographic shift in demand, coupled with continued, intense price pressure will present a major challenge for the leading PV inverter suppliers in 2013.
Although the US and some key Asian countries will more than make up for the shortfall left by the decreasing markets of Italy and Germany, these markets may not be easily accessible to many of the leading inverter suppliers and penetrating the markets will be challenging. Some of the key challenges that inverter manufacturers will continue to face in 2013 will be certification standards, lower cost bases and local manufacturing requirements, as well as intense competition from local suppliers. As some of the Asian countries have a much lower price point, one of the biggest hurdles for inverter manufacturers in 2013 is that they will not be able to subsidize their Asia operations by their profitable business in Europe.
As feed-in-tariff (FIT) cuts have occurred in mature PV inverter markets such as Germany and Italy, manufacturers are increasingly looking to the growth markets of US and Asia.
For those manufacturers that withstand the challenges of 2013 and successfully penetrate these emerging markets, the future years are forecast to return to double digit growth as the solar market reaches greater maturity. However the key inverter markets will no longer be centered in Europe but spread over a greater number of continents. IMS Research forecasts that Europe accounted 54% of global shipments in 2012; however this will fall significantly to 40% by 2014. As a result, IMS Research predicts that the top 10 manufacturers in 2014 will be quite different to those seen today, with many more China- and Japan-based companies.
