While upstream LED firms have been forecasting lower 2012 revenues and falling prices,downstream LED applications are expected to grow continuously through second-half 2012.
The world's two largest MOCVD equipment firms Veeco and Aixtron forecast 2012 total revenues of US$500-600 million and EUR275 million(US$335 million)respectively.Veeco's forecast revenues show an on-year drop of 39-49%while the revenues forecast by Aixtron show an on-year drop of 55%.Veeco indicated that revenues in the first and second halves will each account for 50%of total revenues.
Due to numerous new sapphire crystal growing firms,the industry of sapphire substrates has been suffering from oversupply.The price of 2-inch sapphire substrates in second-half 2012 is likely to remain at US$8-9/unit.Nevertheless,the price of patterned sapphire substrates(PSSs)is likely to increase slightly due to high demand from LED firms.
LED component makers have seen capacity utilization rates return above 80%in second-quarter 2012.The utilization rates are likely to remain at the 80-90%level in the third quarter.Shipments of LED backlight units(BLUs)for TVs have been stable,but ASP is expected to drop 5%in both quarters of the second half of the year.ASP of LED chips for lighting is likely to show a deeper decrease due to rising competition.
LED TVs continue to be the main revenue source for upstream firms.The penetration of LED TVs in 2012 has been forecast at 65-70%.In particular,shipments of low-priced direct-lit LED TVs are expected to rise continuously in the second half,a penetration rate for the year of 10.5%.
