The 14th AFGC Chep Retail Index, released on 28 July, suggests that the retail sector has regained much of its strength.
The Index shows year-on-year retail sales growth was 5.2% in the June quarter. And although this was a slight dip from a March quarter high of 5.8%, 4.9% year-on-year growth for the month of June is healthy growth.
In January, the Index suggested a year-on-year increase of 4.2% for the month of February 2014 and a 4.2% year-on-year increase for the March 2014 quarter.
The June year-on-year turnover was $23.11 billion, up from $23.01 billion in March.
The new national forecast is optimistic also. Growth is expected to remain at the current pace, with a rise of 5.1% forecast for both the September quarter and month of August, with a turnover of $23.32 billion forecast in August.
Growth is not consistent across the states though. Western Australia experienced no retail sales growth over the past year while New South Wales had a growth spurt of 8%.
Australian Food & Grocery Council (AFGC) chief executive officer, Gary Dawson, commented, “It's pleasing to see growth is still quite strong at around 5 per cent given that this period includes the impact on consumer sentiment of the May Federal Budget. Interest rates continue to remain low, and the labour market is picking up, so our expectation is 2014/15 will be a good year for retailers.”
CHEP Australia & New Zealand president, Phillip Austin, added, “Although some states are doing it tougher than others, we’re delighted that CHEP’s data insights are showing retail sales growth will continue to be strong overall in the next quarter. We will continue to work with manufacturers and retailers across the country to find increased supply chain efficiencies to support growth in the food and grocery retail sector.
View the Index here: CHEP RETAIL INDEX JULY 2014
By comparison, the NAB online retail index grew by 0.2% in May, after a small decline in April and is 5.1% higher, compared to one year ago. According to its calculations, comparable sales growth at traditional retailers slowed in April, to be at 0.1%, compared to 0.4% in March.
In the 12 months to May 2014, Australians spent $15.3 billion on online retail. This, the NAB index report states, is equivalent to 6.6% of spending at traditional bricks & mortar retailers as measured by the ABS (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food, to create a like-for-like comparison) in the 12 months to April 2014.
