Since gallium nitride (GaN) materials can create much more efficient devices for electric power conversion in devices from cell phone chargers to hybrid electric vehicles, the market for GaN discrete components will grow to $1.1bn in 2024, according to Lux Research in its report ‘Breaking Down the Gallium Nitride Power Electronics Market’ (part of the Lux Research Energy Electronics Intelligence service).
However, the substrate on which the GaN device is grown – silicon (Si), silicon carbide (SiC), or GaN – makes a big difference in the cost and performance of the device. GaN-on-Si will dominate the GaN market for at least the next decade, growing to $1bn in 2024 (a 90% share), forecasts Lux.
“Of the three GaN flavors, GaN-on-Si will be the cheapest, pushing adoption of GaN-on-SiC or GaN-on-GaN out into the future,” predicts research analyst Pallavi Madakasira (lead author of the report). “Even though both GaN-on-SiC and GaN-on-GaN offer performance improvements over silicon, high prices for SiC and GaN substrates will limit adoption,” she adds.
Lux Research analysts evaluated the overall GaN market, besides evaluating the growth prospects of the three GaN flavors. Their findings include the following:
Transportation and renewables/grid are key markets. GaN-on-Si will be the runaway leader in the renewables and grid markets, as well as transportation, reaching market sizes of about $350m and $380m, respectively, in 2024. Next in adoption will be IT and electronics. GaN-on-SiC will grow the fastest. GaN-on-SiC will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46% from 2017 to 2024, reaching $140m. Driven by the SiC substrates’ ability to function efficiently at high temperatures, it will gain the most adoption in transportation. GaN-on-GaN is a non-starter for now. The lack of cheaper GaN substrates and a relative lack of developers mean that GaN-on-GaN will play little commercial role in the next decade, forecasts Lux. More R&D is needed on cost-saving innovations such as hybrid manufacturing processes, the firm adds.
