August is always the make-or-break month for the U.S. soybean crop. As the final days of July tick off the calendar, it's becoming clear that's maybe never been as true a statement as in 2014.
Right now, conditions are shaping up for a monster soybean crop; new analysis from the Commodity Weather Group projects the U.S. soybean crop will yield a record 46.1 bushels/acre. That's a record and 4% above trend nationwide, with states including Illinois, Indiana and Nebraska expected to raise record-high crops. Overall, the crop will add up to 3.88 billion bushels based on previous USDA acreage estimates.
The outlook's "based on analysis of current crop conditions, vegetative health and recent rainfall/temperature patterns in conjunction with deviation from trend yields in potentially similar year," according to CWG.
But, this all comes with a catch; it hasn't rained much in the majority of the Corn Belt in the last couple of weeks, and entering August -- the critical month for soybean growth and crop development -- rain's going to have to return to the weather picture if the binbuster CWG experts expect is to reach fruition.
"If rains falter in August in shallow-rooted areas, yield losses of as much as 10% to 20% below trend [are] possible in most problematic areas based on similar cases such as ‘08," according to CWG. "Using our current 16- to 30-day outlook, the main risks for negative impacts due to dryness are in South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin, with more limited risks in Iowa, North Dakota and Michigan."
If those rains don't fall and those risks become reality, look for a national yield to drop to around 44 bushels/acre. On the other side of the coin, look for yields to near 48 bushels/acre, according to CWG, if "sufficient rains manage to occur."
