New solar photovoltaic (PV) demand added during the first quarter of 2014 exceeded 9GW, which was 35% more than the previous first-quarter record, set in 2013. Every quarter in 2014 is forecast to reach new highs, with trailing 12-month demand at the end of first-quarter 2015 forecast to exceed 50GW for the first time, according to findings from Solarbuzz.
The record level of demand achieved in the first quarter was driven by strong growth in Japan and the UK. These two countries combined accounted for more than one-third of global solar PV demand in first-quarter 2014 and set new quarterly records for PV deployed.
"This is the fifth straight year that a quarterly record has been set at the start of the year," said Michael Barker, senior analyst at Solarbuzz. "While demand during the first quarter typically sets the low point for the year, deployment levels during this quarter provide an excellent means of benchmarking demand for the rest of the coming year."
Solar PV demand during the first quarter typically accounts for up to 20% of annual demand. For example, first-quarter 2013 demand of nearly 7GW was followed by full-year demand above 37GW. "Purely on a pro-rata basis, first-quarter 2014 provides strong confidence that 2014 solar PV demand will indeed reach, and possibly even surpass the Solarbuzz full-year forecast of 49GW in 2014," Barker noted.
With first-quarter 2013 now closed, the trailing 12-month demand suggests that the true size of the industry today is almost 40GW. By the end of first-quarter 2015, the PV industry will likely break through the pivotal 50GW barrier, bringing the industry much closer to rational supply and demand levels, the firm said.
"During the past few years, the solar PV industry has been waiting for end-market demand to catch up with the excess manufacturing capacity added between 2010-2012," added Finlay Colville, VP of NPD Solarbuzz. "This wait is now coming to an end. As annual demand approaches the 50GW level, suppliers will finally be able to shift their focus from short-term tactical survival to long-term strategic planning."
