Driven by a large fall in the area planted to cotton, the production of white gold in Australia is forecast to fall by almost half in 2014-15, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
In its Australian Crop Report, released this month, ABARES says “Less than favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring in Queensland and northern New South Wales depleted soil moisture levels and irrigation water availability, resulting in unfavourable planting conditions at the start of the summer crop planting window.”
The report predicts the area planted to summer crops to fall by 13 per cent to 974,000 hectares, driven by a large fall in the area planted to cotton. Accordingly, it predicts a 13 per cent fall in summer crop production to around 3.2 million tonnes in 2014-15.
According to the report, “Cotton production is forecast to fall by almost half in 2014-15 to 470,000 tonnes of cotton lint and 665,000 tonnes of cottonseed, largely reflecting the fall in planted area.”
The area planted to cotton is estimated to decline to 210,000 hectares in 2014-15, from 392,000 hectares in 2013-14. “This reflects relatively low cotton prices at the time of planting and dry seasonal conditions over winter, which reduced the level of irrigation water in dams serving Australia’s cotton growing regions,” states the report.
The average cotton yield in 2014–15 is assumed to decrease by 1 per cent from the level achieved in 2013-14, to 2.2 tonnes a hectare.
In New South Wales, cotton production is forecast to decline by 47 per cent in 2014-15 to 310,000 tonnes of cotton lint and 438,000 tonnes of cottonseed. This forecast decline reflects an estimated 47 per cent fall in the area planted to cotton to 136,000 hectares and an assumed 1 per cent decline in the average yield to 2.3 tonnes a hectare.
Similarly, in Queensland, the production of cotton in 2014-15 is predicted to decline by 46 per cent to 160,000 tonnes of cotton lint and 226,000 tonnes of cottonseed, driven by a 46 per cent fall in the area planted to cotton to 74,000 hectares. The average yield is assumed to fall by 1 per cent to 2.2 tonnes a hectare.
