World 2013/14 cotton trade is forecast to decline 12 percent from a year ago, to 39.5 million bales, due to a combination of lower exportable supplies and China’s policy-driven lower demand for foreign cotton.
The 2013/14 forecast will represent the third-consecutive-annual decline in global trade as major exporters such as Australia, Brazil, India, and the United States anticipate sharply lower exports.
Australia is forecast to export 4.7 million bales in 2013/14, down 10 percent from the preceding year, leaving its share of world exports unchanged from the previous year’s 12 percent.
Brazil’s 2013/14 exports are forecast at 2.8 million bales, down 37 percent (1.7 million bales) from the previous year, due to lower supplies available from the 2012/13 crop. India is forecast to export 5.5 million bales in 2013/14, a reduction of 1.7 million bales (24 percent) from a year earlier, partly driven by competition from its growing domestic textile industry.
The United States—the world’s leading cotton exporter—is forecast to export 11.5 million bales in 2013/14, a 13-percent decline from a year earlier, due to the sharply lower expected 2013/14 crop. The African Franc Zone and Central Asia are forecast to export nearly 4.3 million bales and 5.3 million bales, respectively, in 2013/14—up 13 percent from a year ago in the AFZ, but unchanged in Central Asia.
Imports are forecast to increase in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Mexico, and Turkey, but not by enough to offset sharp 2013/14 decreases in China and India.
China’s 2013/14 imports are forecast at 12.0 million bales, down 34 percent from the previous year, as growing official reserve stocks—in defense of cotton producer minimum support price—create less need for foreign cotton.
In forecasting China’s 2013/14 imports, the USDA took into consideration current reserve release prices and import quota policies. The 2013/14 projection puts China’s share of global imports at 40 percent, down 14 percentage points from the previous year. India is forecast to import 1.0 million bales in 2013/14, down 700,000 bales (41 percent) from the preceding year.
Bangladesh and Indonesia are forecast to import 3.8 million bales and 2.5 million bales, respectively, in 2013/14, up 4 percent and 2 percent from the previous year.
Pakistan and Turkey are forecast to import 3.1 million bales and 4.0 million bales in 2013/14, an increase of 13 percent and 8 percent, respectively, from a year earlier. Imports by Mexico and Thailand are forecast at 1.2 million bales and 1.6 million bales, respectively, up 20 percent and 5 percent from the previous year.
