The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is set for rapid growth over the next five years, with up to 100GW annual deployment being targeted in 2018, according to Solarbuzz. This end-market growth is projected to increase annual PV module revenues, which are forecast to reach US$50 billion in 2018.
Despite being severely hampered by overcapacity and declining operating margins during 2012 and 2013, the PV industry still grew 34% over this two-year period. Having grown to more than 37GW of end-market demand in 2013, the global solar PV industry is now set to hit a new milestone in 2018, reaching a cumulative installed capacity level of 500MW. This strong demand will also further stimulate revenues for the industry's manufacturers, with PV module revenues of more than US$200 billion available over the five-year period from 2014-2018.
"Solar PV module prices declined faster than the end-market grew in 2012, leading to a dramatic decline in revenues," said Michael Barker, senior analyst at Solarbuzz. "This imbalance was corrected during 2013. Over the next five years, end-market growth will exceed forecasted price declines, resulting in a strong rebound in module revenues."
From a technology standpoint, crystalline silicon (c-Si) based modules are forecast to increase market share over the competing thin-film variants. Between 2014-2018, 91% of solar PV modules produced are forecast to be c-Si types, the firm said.
PV module average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to decline moderately over the next few years and are forecast to reach US$0.51 per watt in 2018. In addition, system prices will decline each year, driven mainly by cost reductions in balance-of-systems components and economies-of-scale improvements enabled by project developers and installers, added Solarbuzz.
"Solar PV suppliers are benefiting from a less volatile pricing environment, compared to previous years," said Finlay Colville, VP of Solarbuzz. "The industry will soon transition to a phase of profitable growth, with solar PV competing directly with traditional forms of energy."
