Temperatures this morning are below zero across nearly the entire extent of the Midwest, with the exception being a few areas near/slightly above zero along the extreme southern Midwest.
Across the Plains states, most of the HRW wheat crop is experiencing temperatures above zero, negating any potential winterkill damage. Across the SRW wheat areas, however, another morning near zero for northern Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southern Indiana may result in some spotty winterkill, with the exact extent of any damage quite uncertain.
Temperatures across the Southeast states are remarkably cold for this time of year with single digits and teens as far south as the Panhandle of Florida. It appears most of central and southern Florida is above freezing, reducing any potential for citrus damage. Today temperatures will be 10-20 degrees warmer for the eastern Plains and Midwest than what we saw yesterday, with single digits and teens for the Midwest and 20's 30's, and even some 40's from Nebraska southward. Subzero temperatures will linger across North Dakota.
Across the eastern megalopolis, temperatures will be 20-30 degrees below normal with highs in the single digits and teens across New England. A few readings in the lower 20's will be found across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Wednesday will feature more in the way of below normal temperature across the eastern 2/3 of the country. Light rain/mix will also develop across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, and eastern Kansas with a few isolated snow showers across southern Iowa. The next big weather maker arrives Friday across the Southern Plains and western Midwest as warmer air tries to lift northward associated with a rapidly retreating Arctic airmass.
A rather impressive swath of rainfall appears likely for much of the Southern Plains and southern portions of the western Midwest (1"+). Central and northern portions of the western Midwest, especially Iowa, may see more of a wintry mix. Friday night through Saturday this sytem will cross most of the central and eastern Midwest, Delta, and Southeast, bringing warmer temperatures along with it. In fact, both Saturday and Sunday temperatures across southern portions the central and eastern Midwest could warm well into the 40's and 50's.
Much of the central and eastern US will be above normal during the 6-10 day period. After the 15th, there continue to be indications of another cold snap across the central/northern US, although current long- range models keep the magnitude and longevity of this potential cold snap rather modest. Across South America, favorable weather continues across most of Southeast Brazil and central and northern Argentina. 2 areas of concern exist for Northeast Brazil and southern Argentina.
Across northeast Brazil, dry weather will linger the next several days along with temperatures running 5-10 degrees above average. Examining 30 and 90 day rainfall anomalies for this region, although most areas have seen plentiful rainfall there are some dry areas, particularly across southern portions of Goias and Minas Gerais. While harvest weather looks good, some late maturing soybeans may be stressed by heat and dryness.
