Unit shipments of LED lamps and luminaires are expected to total 10.7 billion from 2014 through 2023, according to the report 'Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets' from Navigant Research.
As new LED products have reached the market in the last few years, the technology has become increasingly competitive with the fluorescent lighting typically used in commercial applications, says the market research firm. While still more expensive, LEDs have been found to be more efficient and to offer a range of benefits, including improved color quality and better dimming.
"Long term, it's possible that LEDs could trigger a fundamental change in the way lighting is provided to commercial spaces," says senior research analyst Jesse Foote. "The traditional lamp/luminaire model could be replaced by products that integrate the two, and even the concept of providing light through fixtures in the ceiling could shift, as flat and flexible LEDs allow for more creative designs that can be incorporated into other building materials and placed in non-traditional locations."
The use of LEDs in commercial applications is expected to be most apparent in retrofit projects, where older lighting is often replaced specifically to improve efficiency, according to the report. Although research indicates that only 15% of lamps sold to retrofit projects worldwide in 2014 were LED-based, that share is expected to grow to nearly 74% by 2023, potentially eliminating inefficient technologies like incandescent and halogen.
However, due to the much longer lifespan of LED lamps, Navigant expects overall revenue from lamp sales to decline in the coming decade, from $18.5bn in 2014 to $12.8bn in 2023. To avoid this inevitable decline, lighting companies are broadening their focus from that of equipment suppliers by beginning to provide lighting controls and lighting services. Just as the tech giants (e.g. Hewlett-Packard and IBM) of decades past had to make the shift from hardware to software and services, today's lighting giants are becoming providers of complete lighting solutions rather than just the physical elements that emit light, notes Navigant.
